**High uncertainty in peak daytime highs stems from variable late-summer atmospheric patterns over the Black Rock Desert, where trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 24–27% across 86–97°F+ bins.** The event runs August 30–September 7, 2026, coinciding with the seasonal transition when regional high pressure can yield strong surface heating and large diurnal ranges, yet incoming troughs or increased cloud cover may cap maxima. Recent model guidance shows daytime highs near 82–93°F amid low precipitation chances and light winds, though wildfire smoke from nearby events like the Hawk Fire could subtly alter insolation. Historical August–September baselines feature average highs of ~90–95°F with occasional extremes above 100°F, but short-term forecast spread remains wide until closer to gate opening and daily NWS updates.