Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a highest temperature in San Francisco on August 26 most likely falling in the mid- to upper-60s to mid-70s, driven by a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow that limits daytime heating along the coast. The layer, typically 1,000–1,500 feet deep, maintains cooler conditions near the city while allowing slightly warmer readings at the airport or in sheltered spots; this setup explains why the 74–77°F bins hold the largest combined implied probability. Seasonal norms hover near 70°F, and with no strong offshore warming signal or clear-sky breakout expected before Thursday’s pattern shift, traders appear to price modest upside from the average while discounting extremes above 80°F. New model runs and the next NWS update will refine the exact maximum and any marine-layer thinning that could shift resolution odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 26?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 26?
76-77°F 35%
74-75°F 27%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
35%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 35%
74-75°F 27%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 26, 2026
69°F or below
$46 ปริมาณ
1%
70-71°F
$449 ปริมาณ
1%
72-73°F
$122 ปริมาณ
12%
74-75°F
$1,281 ปริมาณ
27%
76-77°F
$471 ปริมาณ
35%
78-79°F
$652 ปริมาณ
18%
80-81°F
$517 ปริมาณ
9%
82-83°F
$381 ปริมาณ
1%
84-85°F
$5 ปริมาณ
3%
86-87°F
$379 ปริมาณ
<1%
88°F or higher
$659 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a highest temperature in San Francisco on August 26 most likely falling in the mid- to upper-60s to mid-70s, driven by a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow that limits daytime heating along the coast. The layer, typically 1,000–1,500 feet deep, maintains cooler conditions near the city while allowing slightly warmer readings at the airport or in sheltered spots; this setup explains why the 74–77°F bins hold the largest combined implied probability. Seasonal norms hover near 70°F, and with no strong offshore warming signal or clear-sky breakout expected before Thursday’s pattern shift, traders appear to price modest upside from the average while discounting extremes above 80°F. New model runs and the next NWS update will refine the exact maximum and any marine-layer thinning that could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,694วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a highest temperature in San Francisco on August 26 most likely falling in the mid- to upper-60s to mid-70s, driven by a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow that limits daytime heating along the coast. The layer, typically 1,000–1,500 feet deep, maintains cooler conditions near the city while allowing slightly warmer readings at the airport or in sheltered spots; this setup explains why the 74–77°F bins hold the largest combined implied probability. Seasonal norms hover near 70°F, and with no strong offshore warming signal or clear-sky breakout expected before Thursday’s pattern shift, traders appear to price modest upside from the average while discounting extremes above 80°F. New model runs and the next NWS update will refine the exact maximum and any marine-layer thinning that could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,694วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 26, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a highest temperature in San Francisco on August 26 most likely falling in the mid- to upper-60s to mid-70s, driven by a persistent marine layer and moderate onshore flow that limits daytime heating along the coast. The layer, typically 1,000–1,500 feet deep, maintains cooler conditions near the city while allowing slightly warmer readings at the airport or in sheltered spots; this setup explains why the 74–77°F bins hold the largest combined implied probability. Seasonal norms hover near 70°F, and with no strong offshore warming signal or clear-sky breakout expected before Thursday’s pattern shift, traders appear to price modest upside from the average while discounting extremes above 80°F. New model runs and the next NWS update will refine the exact maximum and any marine-layer thinning that could shift resolution odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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