**Ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models place Beijing’s August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C, with thunderstorm development and associated cloud cover the dominant variables differentiating outcomes.** Recent warm anomalies across North China, with daytime highs frequently exceeding 33 °C earlier in August, set a warm baseline, yet increasing low-level moisture and southerly flow favor scattered convection that could cap temperatures or allow brief clearing to push readings higher. Historical climatology shows a late-August mean high of ~29.7 °C, so current guidance reflects both the seasonal tail of summer warmth and the moderating influence of precipitation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31–33 °C because these align with the central tendency of available model runs, while lower probabilities for 34 °C+ or sub-30 °C reflect realistic but less likely scenarios of suppressed convection or stronger cooling outflows. Updated short-range model cycles and official CMA guidance issued closer to the date remain the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
32°C 30%
31°C 26%
33°C 25%
30°C 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
11%
30°C
12%
31°C
26%
32°C
30%
33°C
25%
34°C
12%
35°C
7%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 30%
31°C 26%
33°C 25%
30°C 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$20 ปริมาณ
2%
29°C
$20 ปริมาณ
11%
30°C
$5 ปริมาณ
12%
31°C
$19 ปริมาณ
26%
32°C
$21 ปริมาณ
30%
33°C
$20 ปริมาณ
25%
34°C
$13 ปริมาณ
12%
35°C
$10 ปริมาณ
7%
36°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models place Beijing’s August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C, with thunderstorm development and associated cloud cover the dominant variables differentiating outcomes.** Recent warm anomalies across North China, with daytime highs frequently exceeding 33 °C earlier in August, set a warm baseline, yet increasing low-level moisture and southerly flow favor scattered convection that could cap temperatures or allow brief clearing to push readings higher. Historical climatology shows a late-August mean high of ~29.7 °C, so current guidance reflects both the seasonal tail of summer warmth and the moderating influence of precipitation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31–33 °C because these align with the central tendency of available model runs, while lower probabilities for 34 °C+ or sub-30 °C reflect realistic but less likely scenarios of suppressed convection or stronger cooling outflows. Updated short-range model cycles and official CMA guidance issued closer to the date remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$128วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 25, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models place Beijing’s August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C, with thunderstorm development and associated cloud cover the dominant variables differentiating outcomes.** Recent warm anomalies across North China, with daytime highs frequently exceeding 33 °C earlier in August, set a warm baseline, yet increasing low-level moisture and southerly flow favor scattered convection that could cap temperatures or allow brief clearing to push readings higher. Historical climatology shows a late-August mean high of ~29.7 °C, so current guidance reflects both the seasonal tail of summer warmth and the moderating influence of precipitation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31–33 °C because these align with the central tendency of available model runs, while lower probabilities for 34 °C+ or sub-30 °C reflect realistic but less likely scenarios of suppressed convection or stronger cooling outflows. Updated short-range model cycles and official CMA guidance issued closer to the date remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$128วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 25, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models place Beijing’s August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C, with thunderstorm development and associated cloud cover the dominant variables differentiating outcomes.** Recent warm anomalies across North China, with daytime highs frequently exceeding 33 °C earlier in August, set a warm baseline, yet increasing low-level moisture and southerly flow favor scattered convection that could cap temperatures or allow brief clearing to push readings higher. Historical climatology shows a late-August mean high of ~29.7 °C, so current guidance reflects both the seasonal tail of summer warmth and the moderating influence of precipitation. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31–33 °C because these align with the central tendency of available model runs, while lower probabilities for 34 °C+ or sub-30 °C reflect realistic but less likely scenarios of suppressed convection or stronger cooling outflows. Updated short-range model cycles and official CMA guidance issued closer to the date remain the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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