Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate Madrid highs climbing toward 38–39°C on August 12 under persistent clear skies and high-pressure dominance, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities for those thresholds. Primary drivers include intense August solar insolation at Madrid's latitude, minimal cloud cover reducing albedo effects, and dry continental air masses limiting evaporative cooling, compounded by the urban heat island that routinely adds 1–2°C to official readings. Current model consensus shows no significant Atlantic trough or frontal passage to moderate temperatures before midweek, though minor shifts in steering flow could cap the peak at 38°C. Historical August maxima near 33°C provide context, but the ongoing stable pattern supports trader focus on the upper end of the typical range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
39°C 59%
38°C 39%
40°C 4%
41°C 2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
39%
39°C
59%
40°C
4%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 59%
38°C 39%
40°C 4%
41°C 2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
$177 ปริมาณ
<1%
34°C
$170 ปริมาณ
<1%
35°C
$140 ปริมาณ
<1%
36°C
$181 ปริมาณ
2%
37°C
$215 ปริมาณ
2%
38°C
$426 ปริมาณ
39%
39°C
$429 ปริมาณ
59%
40°C
$230 ปริมาณ
4%
41°C
$156 ปริมาณ
2%
42°C
$157 ปริมาณ
<1%
43°C or higher
$170 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate Madrid highs climbing toward 38–39°C on August 12 under persistent clear skies and high-pressure dominance, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities for those thresholds. Primary drivers include intense August solar insolation at Madrid's latitude, minimal cloud cover reducing albedo effects, and dry continental air masses limiting evaporative cooling, compounded by the urban heat island that routinely adds 1–2°C to official readings. Current model consensus shows no significant Atlantic trough or frontal passage to moderate temperatures before midweek, though minor shifts in steering flow could cap the peak at 38°C. Historical August maxima near 33°C provide context, but the ongoing stable pattern supports trader focus on the upper end of the typical range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,434วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate Madrid highs climbing toward 38–39°C on August 12 under persistent clear skies and high-pressure dominance, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities for those thresholds. Primary drivers include intense August solar insolation at Madrid's latitude, minimal cloud cover reducing albedo effects, and dry continental air masses limiting evaporative cooling, compounded by the urban heat island that routinely adds 1–2°C to official readings. Current model consensus shows no significant Atlantic trough or frontal passage to moderate temperatures before midweek, though minor shifts in steering flow could cap the peak at 38°C. Historical August maxima near 33°C provide context, but the ongoing stable pattern supports trader focus on the upper end of the typical range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,434วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and AccuWeather indicate Madrid highs climbing toward 38–39°C on August 12 under persistent clear skies and high-pressure dominance, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities for those thresholds. Primary drivers include intense August solar insolation at Madrid's latitude, minimal cloud cover reducing albedo effects, and dry continental air masses limiting evaporative cooling, compounded by the urban heat island that routinely adds 1–2°C to official readings. Current model consensus shows no significant Atlantic trough or frontal passage to moderate temperatures before midweek, though minor shifts in steering flow could cap the peak at 38°C. Historical August maxima near 33°C provide context, but the ongoing stable pattern supports trader focus on the upper end of the typical range.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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