Numerical weather models from AEMET and ECMWF currently project Madrid highs of 34–36°C on July 12 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical of the region’s continental summer regime. These conditions favor strong daytime surface heating with limited moisture or cloud interference, while the urban heat-island effect around observation sites can add 1–2°C locally. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, and model ensemble spread explain why trader consensus clusters tightly on 34–36°C outcomes rather than extremes. Updated short-range guidance and any shifts in the subtropical ridge position over the next 48 hours will be the key variables that could narrow or widen this range before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12?
34°C 45%
33°C 27%
35°C 15%
32°C or below 4.9%
ใหม่
$14,424 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$14,424 ปริมาณ
Jul 12, 2026
32°C or below
5%
33°C
27%
34°C
45%
35°C
15%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
34°C 45%
33°C 27%
35°C 15%
32°C or below 4.9%
ใหม่
$14,424 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$14,424 ปริมาณ
Jul 12, 2026
32°C or below
$708 ปริมาณ
5%
33°C
$1,785 ปริมาณ
27%
34°C
$1,645 ปริมาณ
45%
35°C
$3,333 ปริมาณ
15%
36°C
$3,180 ปริมาณ
2%
37°C
$956 ปริมาณ
<1%
38°C
$365 ปริมาณ
<1%
39°C
$418 ปริมาณ
<1%
40°C
$736 ปริมาณ
<1%
41°C
$597 ปริมาณ
<1%
42°C or higher
$702 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather models from AEMET and ECMWF currently project Madrid highs of 34–36°C on July 12 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical of the region’s continental summer regime. These conditions favor strong daytime surface heating with limited moisture or cloud interference, while the urban heat-island effect around observation sites can add 1–2°C locally. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, and model ensemble spread explain why trader consensus clusters tightly on 34–36°C outcomes rather than extremes. Updated short-range guidance and any shifts in the subtropical ridge position over the next 48 hours will be the key variables that could narrow or widen this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,424วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Numerical weather models from AEMET and ECMWF currently project Madrid highs of 34–36°C on July 12 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical of the region’s continental summer regime. These conditions favor strong daytime surface heating with limited moisture or cloud interference, while the urban heat-island effect around observation sites can add 1–2°C locally. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, and model ensemble spread explain why trader consensus clusters tightly on 34–36°C outcomes rather than extremes. Updated short-range guidance and any shifts in the subtropical ridge position over the next 48 hours will be the key variables that could narrow or widen this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$14,424วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Numerical weather models from AEMET and ECMWF currently project Madrid highs of 34–36°C on July 12 under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical of the region’s continental summer regime. These conditions favor strong daytime surface heating with limited moisture or cloud interference, while the urban heat-island effect around observation sites can add 1–2°C locally. Minor differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact peak timing, and model ensemble spread explain why trader consensus clusters tightly on 34–36°C outcomes rather than extremes. Updated short-range guidance and any shifts in the subtropical ridge position over the next 48 hours will be the key variables that could narrow or widen this range before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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