Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 18?
36°C 61%
37°C 34%
35°C 5.5%
38°C 3.8%
ใหม่
$36,195 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$36,195 ปริมาณ
Jul 18, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
6%
36°C
61%
37°C
34%
38°C
4%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 61%
37°C 34%
35°C 5.5%
38°C 3.8%
ใหม่
$36,195 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$36,195 ปริมาณ
Jul 18, 2026
32°C or below
$290 ปริมาณ
<1%
33°C
$453 ปริมาณ
<1%
34°C
$1,852 ปริมาณ
1%
35°C
$2,593 ปริมาณ
6%
36°C
$12,813 ปริมาณ
61%
37°C
$13,743 ปริมาณ
34%
38°C
$2,264 ปริมาณ
4%
39°C
$1,031 ปริมาณ
1%
40°C
$498 ปริมาณ
<1%
41°C
$311 ปริมาณ
<1%
42°C or higher
$348 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,195วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$36,195วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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