Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in NYC on July 18?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 18?
80-81°F 31%
78-79°F 26%
82-83°F 20%
77°F or below 17%
ใหม่
$15,438 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$15,438 ปริมาณ
Jul 18, 2026
77°F or below
17%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 31%
78-79°F 26%
82-83°F 20%
77°F or below 17%
ใหม่
$15,438 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$15,438 ปริมาณ
Jul 18, 2026
77°F or below
$1,625 ปริมาณ
17%
78-79°F
$1,486 ปริมาณ
26%
80-81°F
$3,165 ปริมาณ
31%
82-83°F
$977 ปริมาณ
20%
84-85°F
$1,111 ปริมาณ
9%
86-87°F
$606 ปริมาณ
2%
88-89°F
$2,246 ปริมาณ
<1%
90-91°F
$1,459 ปริมาณ
<1%
92-93°F
$2,189 ปริมาณ
<1%
94-95°F
$386 ปริมาณ
<1%
96°F or higher
$250 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,438วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,438วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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