Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like the German Weather Service and ECMWF ensembles indicate mostly sunny conditions over southern Bavaria on August 12, 2026, with afternoon highs centered near 29–31 °C. This places the 30 °C outcome at the center of the distribution (49.5 % implied probability), followed by 31 °C (23.5 %) and 29 °C (20.5 %). The pattern reflects a ridge of high pressure supporting modest daytime warming after cooler early-August readings, tempered by light winds and limited moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with few members exceeding 32 °C or falling below 28 °C, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to those tails. Updated short-range forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum and could shift volume among the three leading contracts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Munich on August 12?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 12?
30°C 50%
31°C 24%
29°C 21%
32°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
21%
30°C
50%
31°C
24%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 50%
31°C 24%
29°C 21%
32°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 12, 2026
26°C or below
$85 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$90 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$132 ปริมาณ
4%
29°C
$642 ปริมาณ
21%
30°C
$364 ปริมาณ
50%
31°C
$161 ปริมาณ
24%
32°C
$113 ปริมาณ
5%
33°C
$100 ปริมาณ
2%
34°C
$61 ปริมาณ
<1%
35°C
$95 ปริมาณ
<1%
36°C or higher
$95 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like the German Weather Service and ECMWF ensembles indicate mostly sunny conditions over southern Bavaria on August 12, 2026, with afternoon highs centered near 29–31 °C. This places the 30 °C outcome at the center of the distribution (49.5 % implied probability), followed by 31 °C (23.5 %) and 29 °C (20.5 %). The pattern reflects a ridge of high pressure supporting modest daytime warming after cooler early-August readings, tempered by light winds and limited moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with few members exceeding 32 °C or falling below 28 °C, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to those tails. Updated short-range forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum and could shift volume among the three leading contracts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,939วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like the German Weather Service and ECMWF ensembles indicate mostly sunny conditions over southern Bavaria on August 12, 2026, with afternoon highs centered near 29–31 °C. This places the 30 °C outcome at the center of the distribution (49.5 % implied probability), followed by 31 °C (23.5 %) and 29 °C (20.5 %). The pattern reflects a ridge of high pressure supporting modest daytime warming after cooler early-August readings, tempered by light winds and limited moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with few members exceeding 32 °C or falling below 28 °C, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to those tails. Updated short-range forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum and could shift volume among the three leading contracts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,939วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs and official guidance from sources like the German Weather Service and ECMWF ensembles indicate mostly sunny conditions over southern Bavaria on August 12, 2026, with afternoon highs centered near 29–31 °C. This places the 30 °C outcome at the center of the distribution (49.5 % implied probability), followed by 31 °C (23.5 %) and 29 °C (20.5 %). The pattern reflects a ridge of high pressure supporting modest daytime warming after cooler early-August readings, tempered by light winds and limited moisture. Ensemble spread remains modest, with few members exceeding 32 °C or falling below 28 °C, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to those tails. Updated short-range forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum and could shift volume among the three leading contracts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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