Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of exactly 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, driven by official observations at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 25°C around midday before cooling to 19°C by late afternoon amid southerly winds and clear skies. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing model consensus for a 25°C high against May climatological norms of 20-22°C, influenced by warm air advection over the Shandong Peninsula. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-day solar heating surge exceeding 26°C before sunset, though declining insolation and evening onshore flow make higher readings unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected soon.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 6?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 6?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$119,524 ปริมาณ
$119,524 ปริมาณ
May 6, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$119,524 ปริมาณ
$119,524 ปริมาณ
May 6, 2026
22°C or below
$32,001 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$9,881 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$39,688 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$19,808 ปริมาณ
Yes
26°C
$7,123 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$4,121 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$2,225 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$2,027 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$1,562 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$519 ปริมาณ
No
32°C or higher
$570 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of exactly 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, driven by official observations at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 25°C around midday before cooling to 19°C by late afternoon amid southerly winds and clear skies. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing model consensus for a 25°C high against May climatological norms of 20-22°C, influenced by warm air advection over the Shandong Peninsula. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-day solar heating surge exceeding 26°C before sunset, though declining insolation and evening onshore flow make higher readings unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$119,524วันสิ้นสุด
May 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of exactly 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, driven by official observations at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 25°C around midday before cooling to 19°C by late afternoon amid southerly winds and clear skies. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing model consensus for a 25°C high against May climatological norms of 20-22°C, influenced by warm air advection over the Shandong Peninsula. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-day solar heating surge exceeding 26°C before sunset, though declining insolation and evening onshore flow make higher readings unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$119,524วันสิ้นสุด
May 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of exactly 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, driven by official observations at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 25°C around midday before cooling to 19°C by late afternoon amid southerly winds and clear skies. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing model consensus for a 25°C high against May climatological norms of 20-22°C, influenced by warm air advection over the Shandong Peninsula. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-day solar heating surge exceeding 26°C before sunset, though declining insolation and evening onshore flow make higher readings unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected soon.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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