Trader consensus centers on marine layer dynamics and onshore flow expected to moderate San Francisco's peak temperature tomorrow, with model spreads producing closely matched probabilities around the seasonal 68°F average. Cool Pacific waters sustain a temperature inversion that caps daytime warming, while the layer's depth—governed by subtropical high pressure and sea breeze strength—determines whether afternoon highs reach the upper 60s or remain lower; stronger northwest winds typically deepen stratus and suppress readings by several degrees. Official guidance from NOAA and NWS short-range ensembles shows limited warming potential absent a clear marine push retreat, explaining the tight distribution between 66–69°F bins versus lower odds for 70°F-plus outcomes. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 14?
68-69°F 38%
66-67°F 28%
64-65°F 16%
70-71°F 10%
59°F or below
4%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
28%
68-69°F
38%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
2%
78°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 38%
66-67°F 28%
64-65°F 16%
70-71°F 10%
59°F or below
4%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
28%
68-69°F
38%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
2%
78°F or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
แหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
แหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on marine layer dynamics and onshore flow expected to moderate San Francisco's peak temperature tomorrow, with model spreads producing closely matched probabilities around the seasonal 68°F average. Cool Pacific waters sustain a temperature inversion that caps daytime warming, while the layer's depth—governed by subtropical high pressure and sea breeze strength—determines whether afternoon highs reach the upper 60s or remain lower; stronger northwest winds typically deepen stratus and suppress readings by several degrees. Official guidance from NOAA and NWS short-range ensembles shows limited warming potential absent a clear marine push retreat, explaining the tight distribution between 66–69°F bins versus lower odds for 70°F-plus outcomes. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว

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