Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts around 20-22°C, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration projections under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds capping daytime heating. Current observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the market's resolution source—show midday peaks near 20°C amid overcast skies, aligning with April climatological norms where average highs hover around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 22°C before sunset, though model agreement and late-day cooling trends make this improbable; final official readings expected post-midnight.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 19?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 19?
21°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$278,880 ปริมาณ
$278,880 ปริมาณ
Apr 19, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$278,880 ปริมาณ
$278,880 ปริมาณ
Apr 19, 2026
17°C or below
$9,748 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$8,138 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$12,979 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$23,788 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$54,538 ปริมาณ
Yes
22°C
$43,358 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$46,720 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$26,818 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$32,836 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$9,909 ปริมาณ
No
27°C or higher
$10,049 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts around 20-22°C, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration projections under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds capping daytime heating. Current observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the market's resolution source—show midday peaks near 20°C amid overcast skies, aligning with April climatological norms where average highs hover around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 22°C before sunset, though model agreement and late-day cooling trends make this improbable; final official readings expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$278,880วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts around 20-22°C, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration projections under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds capping daytime heating. Current observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the market's resolution source—show midday peaks near 20°C amid overcast skies, aligning with April climatological norms where average highs hover around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 22°C before sunset, though model agreement and late-day cooling trends make this improbable; final official readings expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$278,880วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts around 20-22°C, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration projections under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds capping daytime heating. Current observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the market's resolution source—show midday peaks near 20°C amid overcast skies, aligning with April climatological norms where average highs hover around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 22°C before sunset, though model agreement and late-day cooling trends make this improbable; final official readings expected post-midnight.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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