Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$167,649 ปริมาณ
$167,649 ปริมาณ
May 4, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
Yes
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$167,649 ปริมาณ
$167,649 ปริมาณ
May 4, 2026
18°C or below
$986 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$1,503 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$1,175 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$14,562 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$20,456 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$14,130 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$13,136 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$19,181 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$22,838 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$31,251 ปริมาณ
No
28°C or higher
$28,431 ปริมาณ
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$167,649วันสิ้นสุด
May 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$167,649วันสิ้นสุด
May 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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