**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority in South Korea’s National Assembly (161 of 300 seats), while the main opposition People Power Party controls roughly 110.** Impeachment requires a two-thirds vote (200 seats), so any motion needs substantial cross-party support that has not emerged. An opposition-backed petition in June 2026 gathered over 100,000 signatures and advanced to committee but has not progressed further, consistent with the ruling party’s ability to block referral to a plenary vote. Approval ratings have declined from the mid-50s to the mid-to-low 30s in recent months amid criticism of housing policy, cabinet nominations, and local election administration issues. Lee addressed several controversies in a September 18, 2026 press conference, accepting responsibility for shortcomings, ruling out any constitutional amendment for a second term, and seeking adjustments to special-counsel legislation. These steps have not altered the legislative math or generated bipartisan momentum for removal. Traders assign only a 6% implied probability to impeachment by the end of 2026 because the structural requirement for opposition defections remains unmet and no catalytic events—such as major scandals or shifts in Assembly composition—have occurred to change that assessment. Resolution depends on an Assembly vote by December 31, 2026.