Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance reveal substantial uncertainty in the overnight low for Austin on September 6, with projected minima spanning cool frontal passage scenarios to warmer, more stable air masses. This drives the market's tight clustering around both sub-68°F and 86°F-plus outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, or wind speeds can alter radiative cooling rates by several degrees. Historical September climatology shows typical Austin lows near 70°F, but current steering patterns and upstream high-pressure positioning introduce model spread that traders weigh against resolution thresholds. Updated short-range forecasts expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and influence further positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Austin on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 6?
86°F or higher 59%
68-69°F 50%
78-79°F 50%
76-77°F 49%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 6, 2026
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
50%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
29%
74-75°F
29%
76-77°F
49%
78-79°F
50%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
29%
86°F or higher
59%
86°F or higher 59%
68-69°F 50%
78-79°F 50%
76-77°F 49%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 6, 2026
67°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
68-69°F
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
70-71°F
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
74-75°F
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
76-77°F
$0 ปริมาณ
49%
78-79°F
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
80-81°F
$0 ปริมาณ
49%
82-83°F
$0 ปริมาณ
30%
84-85°F
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
86°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance reveal substantial uncertainty in the overnight low for Austin on September 6, with projected minima spanning cool frontal passage scenarios to warmer, more stable air masses. This drives the market's tight clustering around both sub-68°F and 86°F-plus outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, or wind speeds can alter radiative cooling rates by several degrees. Historical September climatology shows typical Austin lows near 70°F, but current steering patterns and upstream high-pressure positioning introduce model spread that traders weigh against resolution thresholds. Updated short-range forecasts expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and influence further positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance reveal substantial uncertainty in the overnight low for Austin on September 6, with projected minima spanning cool frontal passage scenarios to warmer, more stable air masses. This drives the market's tight clustering around both sub-68°F and 86°F-plus outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, or wind speeds can alter radiative cooling rates by several degrees. Historical September climatology shows typical Austin lows near 70°F, but current steering patterns and upstream high-pressure positioning introduce model spread that traders weigh against resolution thresholds. Updated short-range forecasts expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and influence further positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance reveal substantial uncertainty in the overnight low for Austin on September 6, with projected minima spanning cool frontal passage scenarios to warmer, more stable air masses. This drives the market's tight clustering around both sub-68°F and 86°F-plus outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, or wind speeds can alter radiative cooling rates by several degrees. Historical September climatology shows typical Austin lows near 70°F, but current steering patterns and upstream high-pressure positioning introduce model spread that traders weigh against resolution thresholds. Updated short-range forecasts expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and influence further positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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