Ongoing European heat wave conditions, with Météo-France and ECMWF guidance projecting a daily minimum near 20–22 °C in Paris on 13 August, underpin the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Elevated overnight readings stem from sustained southerly flow, a strong high-pressure ridge limiting radiative cooling, and the urban heat-island effect that retains daytime warmth into the early morning hours. Minor differences between the 20 °C and 21 °C brackets reflect small spreads among ensemble members on the precise timing of any weak frontal passage or localized cloud cover that could allow marginally greater nocturnal cooling. Traders are also watching the final 12–24 h forecast updates and official station observations, which will resolve the market once the calendar day ends in Central European Time.