Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco indicate a minimum temperature near 55–58°F on September 7, driven by a moderating marine layer and light onshore flow following early-month showers. This aligns with the 56–57°F outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 43.5 percent, reflecting trader assessment of typical early-September radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Historical climatology shows an average low of 56.1°F, while recent observations from September 4–6 registered 57–61°F, supporting consensus around the middle bins. Elevated odds on 47°F or below appear to price residual forecast uncertainty from variable wind patterns rather than current model runs, which show limited potential for stronger nocturnal cooling. Updated NWS briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 7?
56-57°F 60%
66°F or higher 59%
58-59°F 49%
62-63°F 47%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 7, 2026
47°F or below
12%
48-49°F
8%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
28%
54-55°F
31%
56-57°F
44%
58-59°F
49%
60-61°F
46%
62-63°F
47%
64-65°F
8%
66°F or higher
59%
56-57°F 60%
66°F or higher 59%
58-59°F 49%
62-63°F 47%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 7, 2026
47°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
12%
48-49°F
$0 ปริมาณ
8%
50-51°F
$5 ปริมาณ
23%
52-53°F
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
54-55°F
$0 ปริมาณ
31%
56-57°F
$65 ปริมาณ
44%
58-59°F
$0 ปริมาณ
49%
60-61°F
$0 ปริมาณ
46%
62-63°F
$0 ปริมาณ
47%
64-65°F
$0 ปริมาณ
8%
66°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco indicate a minimum temperature near 55–58°F on September 7, driven by a moderating marine layer and light onshore flow following early-month showers. This aligns with the 56–57°F outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 43.5 percent, reflecting trader assessment of typical early-September radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Historical climatology shows an average low of 56.1°F, while recent observations from September 4–6 registered 57–61°F, supporting consensus around the middle bins. Elevated odds on 47°F or below appear to price residual forecast uncertainty from variable wind patterns rather than current model runs, which show limited potential for stronger nocturnal cooling. Updated NWS briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$70วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco indicate a minimum temperature near 55–58°F on September 7, driven by a moderating marine layer and light onshore flow following early-month showers. This aligns with the 56–57°F outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 43.5 percent, reflecting trader assessment of typical early-September radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Historical climatology shows an average low of 56.1°F, while recent observations from September 4–6 registered 57–61°F, supporting consensus around the middle bins. Elevated odds on 47°F or below appear to price residual forecast uncertainty from variable wind patterns rather than current model runs, which show limited potential for stronger nocturnal cooling. Updated NWS briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$70วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 7, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 5, 2026, 7:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco indicate a minimum temperature near 55–58°F on September 7, driven by a moderating marine layer and light onshore flow following early-month showers. This aligns with the 56–57°F outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 43.5 percent, reflecting trader assessment of typical early-September radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Historical climatology shows an average low of 56.1°F, while recent observations from September 4–6 registered 57–61°F, supporting consensus around the middle bins. Elevated odds on 47°F or below appear to price residual forecast uncertainty from variable wind patterns rather than current model runs, which show limited potential for stronger nocturnal cooling. Updated NWS briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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