Recent weather model consensus points to a minimum temperature in Warsaw near the seasonal average of 13–15 °C on 21 August, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those values. Overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, modulated by light southerly winds and moderate humidity, creates the narrow range separating 13 °C from 15 °C outcomes; clearer skies would enhance long-wave radiation loss and favor the lower end, while increased cloudiness or mixing would hold readings closer to 16 °C. Current observations showing early-morning temperatures near 18 °C, combined with forecast guidance for only modest further nocturnal decline, sustain trader focus on this narrow band rather than extremes. Updated regional model runs and official minimum reports later today will resolve the remaining uncertainty.