Recent forecast model runs from agencies including the Met Office and BBC Weather indicate overnight lows in Warsaw on August 22 will likely settle between 12–15 °C, driven by a mix of lingering Atlantic air masses, increasing cloud cover, and scattered thundery showers that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions produce modest uncertainty around the precise minimum, as small shifts in precipitation timing or wind patterns can alter surface heat loss by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology places typical lows near 12–13 °C, providing context for why market-implied odds cluster tightly among the 12–15 °C outcomes while assigning lower probability to extremes below 11 °C or above 16 °C. Updated model guidance expected within the next 12–24 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.