As of August 2026, trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 76% for a qualifying natural disaster reflects the absence of extreme atmospheric or seismic signals in official NOAA and USGS monitoring data through mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NHC models align with typical seasonal patterns rather than record anomalies, reducing the likelihood of a single high-threshold event—such as a Category 5 landfall, magnitude 9+ quake, or VEI 6+ eruption—meeting resolution criteria in the remaining months. Historical baselines show multiple disasters annually, yet the lack of recent escalations in storm intensity, seismic activity, or volcanic alerts keeps implied odds for "Yes" suppressed ahead of key forecast updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$232,536 ปริมาณ
$232,536 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$232,536 ปริมาณ
$232,536 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
As of August 2026, trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 76% for a qualifying natural disaster reflects the absence of extreme atmospheric or seismic signals in official NOAA and USGS monitoring data through mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NHC models align with typical seasonal patterns rather than record anomalies, reducing the likelihood of a single high-threshold event—such as a Category 5 landfall, magnitude 9+ quake, or VEI 6+ eruption—meeting resolution criteria in the remaining months. Historical baselines show multiple disasters annually, yet the lack of recent escalations in storm intensity, seismic activity, or volcanic alerts keeps implied odds for "Yes" suppressed ahead of key forecast updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$232,536วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
As of August 2026, trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 76% for a qualifying natural disaster reflects the absence of extreme atmospheric or seismic signals in official NOAA and USGS monitoring data through mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NHC models align with typical seasonal patterns rather than record anomalies, reducing the likelihood of a single high-threshold event—such as a Category 5 landfall, magnitude 9+ quake, or VEI 6+ eruption—meeting resolution criteria in the remaining months. Historical baselines show multiple disasters annually, yet the lack of recent escalations in storm intensity, seismic activity, or volcanic alerts keeps implied odds for "Yes" suppressed ahead of key forecast updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$232,536วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of August 2026, trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 76% for a qualifying natural disaster reflects the absence of extreme atmospheric or seismic signals in official NOAA and USGS monitoring data through mid-year. Current ENSO-neutral conditions and moderate Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NHC models align with typical seasonal patterns rather than record anomalies, reducing the likelihood of a single high-threshold event—such as a Category 5 landfall, magnitude 9+ quake, or VEI 6+ eruption—meeting resolution criteria in the remaining months. Historical baselines show multiple disasters annually, yet the lack of recent escalations in storm intensity, seismic activity, or volcanic alerts keeps implied odds for "Yes" suppressed ahead of key forecast updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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