Incumbent Newark Mayor Ras Baraka's 94.5% implied probability in the May 12 nonpartisan municipal election reflects trader consensus on his entrenched incumbency advantage after three terms, bolstered by a fragmented field of eight minor challengers splitting opposition votes and risking a runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%. His April 1 rally at NJPAC highlighted 12 years of achievements like economic progress, reinforcing voter loyalty amid low-turnout dynamics that favor organized machines. Recent endorsements, including CWA District 1 for Baraka and his city council slate, further solidify positioning. While no public polling exists, challengers' April letter seeking federal election monitoring signals integrity concerns, though unlikely to shift odds absent a major scandal, health issue, or late consolidation behind a single rival before the June 9 runoff deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNewark Mayoral Election
Newark Mayoral Election
Ras Baraka 95%
Nasheedah Singleton 1.3%
Asha Coates-Hamlet 1.3%
Douglas Davis 1.0%
$14,563 ปริมาณ
$14,563 ปริมาณ
Ras Baraka
95%
Nasheedah Singleton
1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
1%
Douglas Davis
1%
Sheila Montague
1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Jhamar Youngblood
<1%
Tanisha Garner
<1%
Debra Salters
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
Ras Baraka 95%
Nasheedah Singleton 1.3%
Asha Coates-Hamlet 1.3%
Douglas Davis 1.0%
$14,563 ปริมาณ
$14,563 ปริมาณ
Ras Baraka
95%
Nasheedah Singleton
1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
1%
Douglas Davis
1%
Sheila Montague
1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Jhamar Youngblood
<1%
Tanisha Garner
<1%
Debra Salters
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 10, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Newark Mayor Ras Baraka's 94.5% implied probability in the May 12 nonpartisan municipal election reflects trader consensus on his entrenched incumbency advantage after three terms, bolstered by a fragmented field of eight minor challengers splitting opposition votes and risking a runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%. His April 1 rally at NJPAC highlighted 12 years of achievements like economic progress, reinforcing voter loyalty amid low-turnout dynamics that favor organized machines. Recent endorsements, including CWA District 1 for Baraka and his city council slate, further solidify positioning. While no public polling exists, challengers' April letter seeking federal election monitoring signals integrity concerns, though unlikely to shift odds absent a major scandal, health issue, or late consolidation behind a single rival before the June 9 runoff deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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