**The high 92% implied probability against H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 reflects the bill’s repeated House passage followed by consistent Senate blockage.** Versions of the legislation requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration passed the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 (218-213), but have advanced no further. In the Senate, the measure faces a 60-vote filibuster threshold; with Republicans holding 53 seats, at least seven Democratic votes are required, yet none have materialized. A Republican senator also voted against cloture proceedings in March 2026. No floor vote or compromise has occurred since then, and the bill remains stalled in committee or on the calendar as of mid-June 2026. Supporters have explored related measures or executive actions, but these do not satisfy the market’s specific condition that this bill be enacted. Without a clear path to bipartisan Senate support or procedural changes before year-end, traders view enactment in 2026 as highly improbable.