A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching 1.8–2.7°C and forecasts pointing toward a potentially historic peak later in 2026, serves as the dominant driver of market-implied odds across the temperature anomaly bins. This coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere, amplifying global mean surface temperatures with a lag of several months that aligns with September 2026. Supporting factors include the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.4–1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, though model spreads in ENSO intensity, atmospheric responses, and internal variability create substantial uncertainty that equalizes probabilities across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges. Traders will monitor the next CPC ENSO discussion on September 10 and early observational updates for shifts in implied consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
<1.30ºC 44%
1.30–1.34ºC 44%
1.35–1.39ºC 44%
1.40–1.44ºC 44%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
44%
1.30–1.34ºC
44%
1.35–1.39ºC
44%
1.40–1.44ºC
44%
1.45–1.49ºC
44%
>1.49ºC
44%
<1.30ºC 44%
1.30–1.34ºC 44%
1.35–1.39ºC 44%
1.40–1.44ºC 44%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
>1.49ºC
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching 1.8–2.7°C and forecasts pointing toward a potentially historic peak later in 2026, serves as the dominant driver of market-implied odds across the temperature anomaly bins. This coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere, amplifying global mean surface temperatures with a lag of several months that aligns with September 2026. Supporting factors include the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.4–1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, though model spreads in ENSO intensity, atmospheric responses, and internal variability create substantial uncertainty that equalizes probabilities across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges. Traders will monitor the next CPC ENSO discussion on September 10 and early observational updates for shifts in implied consensus.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching 1.8–2.7°C and forecasts pointing toward a potentially historic peak later in 2026, serves as the dominant driver of market-implied odds across the temperature anomaly bins. This coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere, amplifying global mean surface temperatures with a lag of several months that aligns with September 2026. Supporting factors include the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.4–1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, though model spreads in ENSO intensity, atmospheric responses, and internal variability create substantial uncertainty that equalizes probabilities across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges. Traders will monitor the next CPC ENSO discussion on September 10 and early observational updates for shifts in implied consensus.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching 1.8–2.7°C and forecasts pointing toward a potentially historic peak later in 2026, serves as the dominant driver of market-implied odds across the temperature anomaly bins. This coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern releases stored Pacific heat into the atmosphere, amplifying global mean surface temperatures with a lag of several months that aligns with September 2026. Supporting factors include the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.4–1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, though model spreads in ENSO intensity, atmospheric responses, and internal variability create substantial uncertainty that equalizes probabilities across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges. Traders will monitor the next CPC ENSO discussion on September 10 and early observational updates for shifts in implied consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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