Trader consensus favors a summer 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 52.5% implied probability, driven by the record-tying lowest winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—per NSIDC data—signaling a thin ice pack vulnerable to accelerated melt. Early April extent remains well below 1981–2010 averages, with NSIDC and JAXA observations showing rapid decline amid above-freezing temperatures in key marginal seas like the Barents and Bering. NOAA forecasts indicate a 61% chance of El Niño emerging by May–July, historically linked to enhanced melt via atmospheric blocking patterns and warmer Pacific inflows. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in May will refine model consensus, amid inherent uncertainties in melt-season weather steering.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 53%
4.0-4.2m sq km 15.2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 11.7%
4.2-4.4m sq km 11.6%
$31,456 ปริมาณ
$31,456 ปริมาณ
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
53%
4.0-4.2m sq km
15%
4.2-4.4m sq km
12%
4.4-4.6m sq km
12%
4.6-4.8m sq km
11%
4.8-5m sq km
1%
5m+ sq km
1%
<4m sq km 53%
4.0-4.2m sq km 15.2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 11.7%
4.2-4.4m sq km 11.6%
$31,456 ปริมาณ
$31,456 ปริมาณ
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$24,133 ปริมาณ
53%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$2,461 ปริมาณ
15%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$797 ปริมาณ
12%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$945 ปริมาณ
12%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$1,675 ปริมาณ
11%
4.8-5m sq km
$615 ปริมาณ
1%
5m+ sq km
$830 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus favors a summer 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 52.5% implied probability, driven by the record-tying lowest winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—per NSIDC data—signaling a thin ice pack vulnerable to accelerated melt. Early April extent remains well below 1981–2010 averages, with NSIDC and JAXA observations showing rapid decline amid above-freezing temperatures in key marginal seas like the Barents and Bering. NOAA forecasts indicate a 61% chance of El Niño emerging by May–July, historically linked to enhanced melt via atmospheric blocking patterns and warmer Pacific inflows. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in May will refine model consensus, amid inherent uncertainties in melt-season weather steering.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,456วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus favors a summer 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 52.5% implied probability, driven by the record-tying lowest winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—per NSIDC data—signaling a thin ice pack vulnerable to accelerated melt. Early April extent remains well below 1981–2010 averages, with NSIDC and JAXA observations showing rapid decline amid above-freezing temperatures in key marginal seas like the Barents and Bering. NOAA forecasts indicate a 61% chance of El Niño emerging by May–July, historically linked to enhanced melt via atmospheric blocking patterns and warmer Pacific inflows. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in May will refine model consensus, amid inherent uncertainties in melt-season weather steering.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$31,456วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors a summer 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 52.5% implied probability, driven by the record-tying lowest winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—per NSIDC data—signaling a thin ice pack vulnerable to accelerated melt. Early April extent remains well below 1981–2010 averages, with NSIDC and JAXA observations showing rapid decline amid above-freezing temperatures in key marginal seas like the Barents and Bering. NOAA forecasts indicate a 61% chance of El Niño emerging by May–July, historically linked to enhanced melt via atmospheric blocking patterns and warmer Pacific inflows. Upcoming Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks in May will refine model consensus, amid inherent uncertainties in melt-season weather steering.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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