Recent observational data from NSIDC, JAXA, and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent running well below the 1981-2010 average through mid-August 2026, with early August values near 7 million sq km ranking among the lowest on record. Spring forecast models projected a September minimum centered near 4.5 million sq km, aligning with trader consensus favoring the 4.4-4.6 million sq km bin. Record-low winter maximum extent, persistent warm Arctic temperatures, and thin first-year ice have accelerated seasonal melt, though a temporary slowdown in early August extent loss introduces modest uncertainty. Continued warm conditions and thin ice cover make lower bins less probable while supporting the current market-implied distribution ahead of peak melt and final September observations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 27.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 19.0%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.0%
4.0-4.2m sq km 12.9%
$68,415 ปริมาณ
$68,415 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
10%
4.0-4.2m sq km
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
23%
4.4-4.6m sq km
40%
4.6-4.8m sq km
19%
4.8-5m sq km
3%
5m+ sq km
6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 27.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 19.0%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.0%
4.0-4.2m sq km 12.9%
$68,415 ปริมาณ
$68,415 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,724 ปริมาณ
10%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,611 ปริมาณ
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,116 ปริมาณ
23%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,128 ปริมาณ
40%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,810 ปริมาณ
19%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,527 ปริมาณ
3%
5m+ sq km
$14,498 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC, JAXA, and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent running well below the 1981-2010 average through mid-August 2026, with early August values near 7 million sq km ranking among the lowest on record. Spring forecast models projected a September minimum centered near 4.5 million sq km, aligning with trader consensus favoring the 4.4-4.6 million sq km bin. Record-low winter maximum extent, persistent warm Arctic temperatures, and thin first-year ice have accelerated seasonal melt, though a temporary slowdown in early August extent loss introduces modest uncertainty. Continued warm conditions and thin ice cover make lower bins less probable while supporting the current market-implied distribution ahead of peak melt and final September observations.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$68,415วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC, JAXA, and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent running well below the 1981-2010 average through mid-August 2026, with early August values near 7 million sq km ranking among the lowest on record. Spring forecast models projected a September minimum centered near 4.5 million sq km, aligning with trader consensus favoring the 4.4-4.6 million sq km bin. Record-low winter maximum extent, persistent warm Arctic temperatures, and thin first-year ice have accelerated seasonal melt, though a temporary slowdown in early August extent loss introduces modest uncertainty. Continued warm conditions and thin ice cover make lower bins less probable while supporting the current market-implied distribution ahead of peak melt and final September observations.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$68,415วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent observational data from NSIDC, JAXA, and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent running well below the 1981-2010 average through mid-August 2026, with early August values near 7 million sq km ranking among the lowest on record. Spring forecast models projected a September minimum centered near 4.5 million sq km, aligning with trader consensus favoring the 4.4-4.6 million sq km bin. Record-low winter maximum extent, persistent warm Arctic temperatures, and thin first-year ice have accelerated seasonal melt, though a temporary slowdown in early August extent loss introduces modest uncertainty. Continued warm conditions and thin ice cover make lower bins less probable while supporting the current market-implied distribution ahead of peak melt and final September observations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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