Trader consensus prices a 94.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of any confirmed DOJ, FBI, or CIA actions following his mid-March 2026 claims of agency surveillance and a potential Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) criminal referral over pre-war contacts with Iranian officials. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed those fears, and no indictment, charges, arraignment, or formal investigation updates have emerged in the past month amid related FBI scrutiny of former counterterrorism official Joe Kent for alleged classified leaks discussed on Carlson's platform. With no procedural developments or scheduled hearings, the lack of escalation signals low near-term risk despite ongoing partisan rhetoric from President Trump criticizing Carlson's GOP standing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
ใหม่
May 31, 2026
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 94.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of any confirmed DOJ, FBI, or CIA actions following his mid-March 2026 claims of agency surveillance and a potential Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) criminal referral over pre-war contacts with Iranian officials. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed those fears, and no indictment, charges, arraignment, or formal investigation updates have emerged in the past month amid related FBI scrutiny of former counterterrorism official Joe Kent for alleged classified leaks discussed on Carlson's platform. With no procedural developments or scheduled hearings, the lack of escalation signals low near-term risk despite ongoing partisan rhetoric from President Trump criticizing Carlson's GOP standing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,648วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 94.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of any confirmed DOJ, FBI, or CIA actions following his mid-March 2026 claims of agency surveillance and a potential Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) criminal referral over pre-war contacts with Iranian officials. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed those fears, and no indictment, charges, arraignment, or formal investigation updates have emerged in the past month amid related FBI scrutiny of former counterterrorism official Joe Kent for alleged classified leaks discussed on Carlson's platform. With no procedural developments or scheduled hearings, the lack of escalation signals low near-term risk despite ongoing partisan rhetoric from President Trump criticizing Carlson's GOP standing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tucker Carlson is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,648วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 7, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 94.5% implied probability against Tucker Carlson's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of any confirmed DOJ, FBI, or CIA actions following his mid-March 2026 claims of agency surveillance and a potential Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) criminal referral over pre-war contacts with Iranian officials. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed those fears, and no indictment, charges, arraignment, or formal investigation updates have emerged in the past month amid related FBI scrutiny of former counterterrorism official Joe Kent for alleged classified leaks discussed on Carlson's platform. With no procedural developments or scheduled hearings, the lack of escalation signals low near-term risk despite ongoing partisan rhetoric from President Trump criticizing Carlson's GOP standing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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