Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that degraded key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, driven by accelerating indirect negotiations mediated in Islamabad. President Trump's recent statements claim Iran has agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpiles, while U.S. proposals for a 20-year suspension of enrichment activities have prompted Iranian counteroffers amid a U.S. naval blockade tightening economic pressure. Upcoming talks this week, ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline and Hormuz shipping reopenings, signal potential for an interim memorandum, though uranium timelines and regional de-escalation remain sticking points that could delay resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$676,048 ปริมาณ
$676,048 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$676,048 ปริมาณ
$676,048 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that degraded key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, driven by accelerating indirect negotiations mediated in Islamabad. President Trump's recent statements claim Iran has agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpiles, while U.S. proposals for a 20-year suspension of enrichment activities have prompted Iranian counteroffers amid a U.S. naval blockade tightening economic pressure. Upcoming talks this week, ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline and Hormuz shipping reopenings, signal potential for an interim memorandum, though uranium timelines and regional de-escalation remain sticking points that could delay resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$676,048วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that degraded key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, driven by accelerating indirect negotiations mediated in Islamabad. President Trump's recent statements claim Iran has agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpiles, while U.S. proposals for a 20-year suspension of enrichment activities have prompted Iranian counteroffers amid a U.S. naval blockade tightening economic pressure. Upcoming talks this week, ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline and Hormuz shipping reopenings, signal potential for an interim memorandum, though uranium timelines and regional de-escalation remain sticking points that could delay resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$676,048วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that degraded key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, driven by accelerating indirect negotiations mediated in Islamabad. President Trump's recent statements claim Iran has agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpiles, while U.S. proposals for a 20-year suspension of enrichment activities have prompted Iranian counteroffers amid a U.S. naval blockade tightening economic pressure. Upcoming talks this week, ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline and Hormuz shipping reopenings, signal potential for an interim memorandum, though uranium timelines and regional de-escalation remain sticking points that could delay resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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