Democratic nominee Elaine Luria holds an 81.5% implied probability in the VA-02 House race against Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans at 17%, driven primarily by Virginia’s April 2026 voter-approved mid-decade redistricting that shifted the Hampton Roads district’s partisan balance. Luria, a former representative, secured the Democratic nomination with over 80% in the August primary, while Kiggans advanced unopposed on the Republican side. A July poll showed the candidates initially tied before Luria edged ahead after biographical information was presented, with low Trump favorability in the district providing additional headwinds for Republicans. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, and traders appear to price in the structural map change and Luria’s name recognition as decisive factors ahead of the November general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVA-02 House Election Winner
VA-02 House Election Winner
$40,760 ปริมาณ
$40,760 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
82%
Republican Party
17%
$40,760 ปริมาณ
$40,760 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,008 ปริมาณ
82%
Republican Party
$22,752 ปริมาณ
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Elaine Luria holds an 81.5% implied probability in the VA-02 House race against Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans at 17%, driven primarily by Virginia’s April 2026 voter-approved mid-decade redistricting that shifted the Hampton Roads district’s partisan balance. Luria, a former representative, secured the Democratic nomination with over 80% in the August primary, while Kiggans advanced unopposed on the Republican side. A July poll showed the candidates initially tied before Luria edged ahead after biographical information was presented, with low Trump favorability in the district providing additional headwinds for Republicans. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, and traders appear to price in the structural map change and Luria’s name recognition as decisive factors ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$40,760วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Elaine Luria holds an 81.5% implied probability in the VA-02 House race against Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans at 17%, driven primarily by Virginia’s April 2026 voter-approved mid-decade redistricting that shifted the Hampton Roads district’s partisan balance. Luria, a former representative, secured the Democratic nomination with over 80% in the August primary, while Kiggans advanced unopposed on the Republican side. A July poll showed the candidates initially tied before Luria edged ahead after biographical information was presented, with low Trump favorability in the district providing additional headwinds for Republicans. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, and traders appear to price in the structural map change and Luria’s name recognition as decisive factors ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$40,760วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic nominee Elaine Luria holds an 81.5% implied probability in the VA-02 House race against Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans at 17%, driven primarily by Virginia’s April 2026 voter-approved mid-decade redistricting that shifted the Hampton Roads district’s partisan balance. Luria, a former representative, secured the Democratic nomination with over 80% in the August primary, while Kiggans advanced unopposed on the Republican side. A July poll showed the candidates initially tied before Luria edged ahead after biographical information was presented, with low Trump favorability in the district providing additional headwinds for Republicans. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, and traders appear to price in the structural map change and Luria’s name recognition as decisive factors ahead of the November general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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