Maura Sullivan leads the NH-01 Democratic primary market at 72% amid strong recent polling and fundraising momentum heading into the September 8 contest. Sullivan, a Marine veteran and former Obama administration official, has outraised Stefany Shaheen by wide margins in multiple quarters, holding a cash-on-hand edge that supports heavier advertising in the final stretch. Recent surveys, including a September 2 Tavern Research poll showing Sullivan at 33% to Shaheen’s 27% and an August Saint Anselm poll at 26%-24%, reflect her gains among undecided voters and veterans. Shaheen, a former Portsmouth city councilor and daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, retains name recognition and some establishment support but trails in resources and has faced attacks over outside funding. Carleigh Beriont has drawn progressive grassroots energy and late poll movement, reaching double digits in recent surveys, while Heath Howard’s withdrawal consolidated some support behind her. The race remains competitive with significant undecided voters, but Sullivan’s financial and organizational advantages have driven trader consensus toward her nomination.