Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index, favors the Democratic Party at 91% implied probability due to long-serving incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott’s re-election bid, superior fundraising exceeding $400,000, and a weak Republican field ahead of the May 26 filing deadline. Scott faces only minor primary challenger Justin Maffett in the August 4 Democratic primary, mirroring the district’s history of lopsided margins above 70% for Democrats. Today’s statewide special election on a constitutional amendment could enable Democratic-drawn maps netting 10-1 advantages, further entrenching VA-03’s safe status. Realistic challenges include Scott’s potential retirement at age 79, a GOP heavyweight recruitment, or primary upset, though base rates for such shifts in safe seats remain low.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVA-03 House Election Winner
VA-03 House Election Winner
$18,480 ปริมาณ
$18,480 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
8%
$18,480 ปริมาณ
$18,480 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,283 ปริมาณ
91%
Republican Party
$7,197 ปริมาณ
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index, favors the Democratic Party at 91% implied probability due to long-serving incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott’s re-election bid, superior fundraising exceeding $400,000, and a weak Republican field ahead of the May 26 filing deadline. Scott faces only minor primary challenger Justin Maffett in the August 4 Democratic primary, mirroring the district’s history of lopsided margins above 70% for Democrats. Today’s statewide special election on a constitutional amendment could enable Democratic-drawn maps netting 10-1 advantages, further entrenching VA-03’s safe status. Realistic challenges include Scott’s potential retirement at age 79, a GOP heavyweight recruitment, or primary upset, though base rates for such shifts in safe seats remain low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,480วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index, favors the Democratic Party at 91% implied probability due to long-serving incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott’s re-election bid, superior fundraising exceeding $400,000, and a weak Republican field ahead of the May 26 filing deadline. Scott faces only minor primary challenger Justin Maffett in the August 4 Democratic primary, mirroring the district’s history of lopsided margins above 70% for Democrats. Today’s statewide special election on a constitutional amendment could enable Democratic-drawn maps netting 10-1 advantages, further entrenching VA-03’s safe status. Realistic challenges include Scott’s potential retirement at age 79, a GOP heavyweight recruitment, or primary upset, though base rates for such shifts in safe seats remain low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,480วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index, favors the Democratic Party at 91% implied probability due to long-serving incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott’s re-election bid, superior fundraising exceeding $400,000, and a weak Republican field ahead of the May 26 filing deadline. Scott faces only minor primary challenger Justin Maffett in the August 4 Democratic primary, mirroring the district’s history of lopsided margins above 70% for Democrats. Today’s statewide special election on a constitutional amendment could enable Democratic-drawn maps netting 10-1 advantages, further entrenching VA-03’s safe status. Realistic challenges include Scott’s potential retirement at age 79, a GOP heavyweight recruitment, or primary upset, though base rates for such shifts in safe seats remain low.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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