**Virginia's 5th congressional district remains structurally Republican-leaning with an R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Trump’s double-digit 2024 margin, and consistent ratings of Solid or Likely Republican from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ.** Incumbent John McGuire secured the Republican nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 84% of the vote against challenger Melanie Lucero. Democrat Tom Perriello, a former one-term representative for the district, won his primary by a similar margin. A late-July/early-August poll showed McGuire ahead 47-44%, within the margin of error, but the district’s rural and suburban makeup, including strong Republican performance in Southside Virginia and Lynchburg, continues to favor the GOP nominee. Perriello’s fundraising edge has not overcome the seat’s baseline partisan tilt or McGuire’s incumbency in this midterm environment. An independent candidate is also on the ballot but is not viewed as a factor in the two-party outcome. Traders price Republican control of the seat as the clear consensus ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVA-05 House Election Winner
VA-05 House Election Winner
$65,770 ปริมาณ
$65,770 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
15%
$65,770 ปริมาณ
$65,770 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$32,567 ปริมาณ
84%
Democratic Party
$33,203 ปริมาณ
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Virginia's 5th congressional district remains structurally Republican-leaning with an R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Trump’s double-digit 2024 margin, and consistent ratings of Solid or Likely Republican from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ.** Incumbent John McGuire secured the Republican nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 84% of the vote against challenger Melanie Lucero. Democrat Tom Perriello, a former one-term representative for the district, won his primary by a similar margin.
A late-July/early-August poll showed McGuire ahead 47-44%, within the margin of error, but the district’s rural and suburban makeup, including strong Republican performance in Southside Virginia and Lynchburg, continues to favor the GOP nominee. Perriello’s fundraising edge has not overcome the seat’s baseline partisan tilt or McGuire’s incumbency in this midterm environment. An independent candidate is also on the ballot but is not viewed as a factor in the two-party outcome. Traders price Republican control of the seat as the clear consensus ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$65,770วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Virginia's 5th congressional district remains structurally Republican-leaning with an R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Trump’s double-digit 2024 margin, and consistent ratings of Solid or Likely Republican from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ.** Incumbent John McGuire secured the Republican nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 84% of the vote against challenger Melanie Lucero. Democrat Tom Perriello, a former one-term representative for the district, won his primary by a similar margin.
A late-July/early-August poll showed McGuire ahead 47-44%, within the margin of error, but the district’s rural and suburban makeup, including strong Republican performance in Southside Virginia and Lynchburg, continues to favor the GOP nominee. Perriello’s fundraising edge has not overcome the seat’s baseline partisan tilt or McGuire’s incumbency in this midterm environment. An independent candidate is also on the ballot but is not viewed as a factor in the two-party outcome. Traders price Republican control of the seat as the clear consensus ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$65,770วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...**Virginia's 5th congressional district remains structurally Republican-leaning with an R+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Trump’s double-digit 2024 margin, and consistent ratings of Solid or Likely Republican from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ.** Incumbent John McGuire secured the Republican nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 84% of the vote against challenger Melanie Lucero. Democrat Tom Perriello, a former one-term representative for the district, won his primary by a similar margin. A late-July/early-August poll showed McGuire ahead 47-44%, within the margin of error, but the district’s rural and suburban makeup, including strong Republican performance in Southside Virginia and Lynchburg, continues to favor the GOP nominee. Perriello’s fundraising edge has not overcome the seat’s baseline partisan tilt or McGuire’s incumbency in this midterm environment. An independent candidate is also on the ballot but is not viewed as a factor in the two-party outcome. Traders price Republican control of the seat as the clear consensus ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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