Virginia's 11th congressional district maintains a deep Democratic advantage rooted in its Northern Virginia suburban composition and D+18 partisan voter index, which has consistently produced large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat James Walkinshaw secured the seat in a 2025 special election following Gerry Connolly's passing, reinforcing the party's dominance ahead of the November 2026 general election. Independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability. The August Democratic primary will select the nominee, but realistic threats to the outcome would require major national political shifts, candidate withdrawal due to unforeseen issues, or unusually high Republican turnout that has not materialized in comparable contests.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVA-11 House Election Winner
VA-11 House Election Winner
$18,980 ปริมาณ
$18,980 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$18,980 ปริมาณ
$18,980 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,278 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican Party
$6,702 ปริมาณ
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 11th congressional district maintains a deep Democratic advantage rooted in its Northern Virginia suburban composition and D+18 partisan voter index, which has consistently produced large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat James Walkinshaw secured the seat in a 2025 special election following Gerry Connolly's passing, reinforcing the party's dominance ahead of the November 2026 general election. Independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability. The August Democratic primary will select the nominee, but realistic threats to the outcome would require major national political shifts, candidate withdrawal due to unforeseen issues, or unusually high Republican turnout that has not materialized in comparable contests.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,980วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 11th congressional district maintains a deep Democratic advantage rooted in its Northern Virginia suburban composition and D+18 partisan voter index, which has consistently produced large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat James Walkinshaw secured the seat in a 2025 special election following Gerry Connolly's passing, reinforcing the party's dominance ahead of the November 2026 general election. Independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability. The August Democratic primary will select the nominee, but realistic threats to the outcome would require major national political shifts, candidate withdrawal due to unforeseen issues, or unusually high Republican turnout that has not materialized in comparable contests.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,980วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Virginia's 11th congressional district maintains a deep Democratic advantage rooted in its Northern Virginia suburban composition and D+18 partisan voter index, which has consistently produced large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat James Walkinshaw secured the seat in a 2025 special election following Gerry Connolly's passing, reinforcing the party's dominance ahead of the November 2026 general election. Independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability. The August Democratic primary will select the nominee, but realistic threats to the outcome would require major national political shifts, candidate withdrawal due to unforeseen issues, or unusually high Republican turnout that has not materialized in comparable contests.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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