Traders view the 96.8% probability against President Trump resigning before 2027 as driven by the historical rarity of such exits and the lack of structural pressures that would force one during his term. Only one modern president has resigned, and that occurred amid imminent impeachment proceedings with eroding party support. Current conditions show no comparable catalysts, such as Senate conviction prospects or broad institutional calls for departure, while Trump's public statements affirm his intent to complete the term. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these odds incorporates base rates for incumbents and the procedural hurdles of resignation. Late-breaking health events or unforeseen legal developments could still intervene, though both remain low-probability factors within the resolution timeframe.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว3% โอกาส
$23,487 ปริมาณ
$23,487 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
3% โอกาส
$23,487 ปริมาณ
$23,487 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders view the 96.8% probability against President Trump resigning before 2027 as driven by the historical rarity of such exits and the lack of structural pressures that would force one during his term. Only one modern president has resigned, and that occurred amid imminent impeachment proceedings with eroding party support. Current conditions show no comparable catalysts, such as Senate conviction prospects or broad institutional calls for departure, while Trump's public statements affirm his intent to complete the term. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these odds incorporates base rates for incumbents and the procedural hurdles of resignation. Late-breaking health events or unforeseen legal developments could still intervene, though both remain low-probability factors within the resolution timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,487วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders view the 96.8% probability against President Trump resigning before 2027 as driven by the historical rarity of such exits and the lack of structural pressures that would force one during his term. Only one modern president has resigned, and that occurred amid imminent impeachment proceedings with eroding party support. Current conditions show no comparable catalysts, such as Senate conviction prospects or broad institutional calls for departure, while Trump's public statements affirm his intent to complete the term. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these odds incorporates base rates for incumbents and the procedural hurdles of resignation. Late-breaking health events or unforeseen legal developments could still intervene, though both remain low-probability factors within the resolution timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$23,487วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Traders view the 96.8% probability against President Trump resigning before 2027 as driven by the historical rarity of such exits and the lack of structural pressures that would force one during his term. Only one modern president has resigned, and that occurred amid imminent impeachment proceedings with eroding party support. Current conditions show no comparable catalysts, such as Senate conviction prospects or broad institutional calls for departure, while Trump's public statements affirm his intent to complete the term. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these odds incorporates base rates for incumbents and the procedural hurdles of resignation. Late-breaking health events or unforeseen legal developments could still intervene, though both remain low-probability factors within the resolution timeframe.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย