President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s firm grip on Turkey’s executive presidency and ruling People’s Alliance coalition underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against his exit by December 31, 2026. His current term runs until 2028, with no scheduled elections or constitutional deadlines in the interim, while recent parliamentary passage and ratification of PKK disarmament legislation in August 2026 has bolstered the government’s parliamentary arithmetic without triggering leadership change. Opposition fragmentation, including court actions against the CHP and the formation of a new party by Özgür Özel and Ekrem İmamoğlu, has further reduced near-term pressure. Although Erdoğan has faced recurring health speculation, no verified acute developments have altered his public schedule or prompted succession. Low-probability shifts could still arise from sudden medical incapacity, an unforeseen snap-election vote requiring a three-fifths parliamentary majority, or rapid deterioration in economic or coalition stability.