Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with the next scheduled election no earlier than May 2028 and no national vote or formal removal process set before the end of 2026. He continues to exercise executive authority through policy announcements on economic regulations, demographic incentives, and regional diplomacy, while the ruling AKP maintains parliamentary control and legal actions have sidelined leading opposition figures. Speculation persists around his health at age 72 and potential succession planning within the party, yet no verified indications of resignation, incapacity, or early-exit triggers have emerged. Traders price these structural and political factors into the high probability that he remains in office past December 31, 2026, consistent with the absence of imminent catalysts for change.