**Democratic House incumbents face an unusually high number of primary challenges in 2026, driven by generational turnover demands, progressive insurgencies, and redistricting effects.** At least seven have already lost renomination, including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to challengers backed by progressive figures, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two Texas members displaced by mid-decade map changes. These outcomes reflect voter frustration with long-serving members over issues like corporate PAC funding, foreign policy stances, and constituent services, alongside younger or left-leaning candidates capitalizing on turnout in safe Democratic districts. With additional contests remaining through September—including in Massachusetts and potential California runoffs—trader pricing in the 10-12 range aligns with expectations of several more defeats without a complete overhaul of the caucus. Historical patterns show most incumbents still prevail, but elevated challenge volume supports the current consensus range.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update10-12 72.6%
13-15 12.6%
7-9 2.6%
>15 1.6%
$35,427 Vol.
$35,427 Vol.
4-6
<1%
7-9
3%
10-12
73%
13-15
13%
>15
2%
10-12 72.6%
13-15 12.6%
7-9 2.6%
>15 1.6%
$35,427 Vol.
$35,427 Vol.
4-6
$2,834 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$13,902 Vol.
3%
10-12
$9,963 Vol.
73%
13-15
$3,371 Vol.
13%
>15
$3,152 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic House incumbents face an unusually high number of primary challenges in 2026, driven by generational turnover demands, progressive insurgencies, and redistricting effects.** At least seven have already lost renomination, including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to challengers backed by progressive figures, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two Texas members displaced by mid-decade map changes. These outcomes reflect voter frustration with long-serving members over issues like corporate PAC funding, foreign policy stances, and constituent services, alongside younger or left-leaning candidates capitalizing on turnout in safe Democratic districts. With additional contests remaining through September—including in Massachusetts and potential California runoffs—trader pricing in the 10-12 range aligns with expectations of several more defeats without a complete overhaul of the caucus. Historical patterns show most incumbents still prevail, but elevated challenge volume supports the current consensus range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$35,427Binuksan ang Market
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic House incumbents face an unusually high number of primary challenges in 2026, driven by generational turnover demands, progressive insurgencies, and redistricting effects.** At least seven have already lost renomination, including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to challengers backed by progressive figures, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two Texas members displaced by mid-decade map changes. These outcomes reflect voter frustration with long-serving members over issues like corporate PAC funding, foreign policy stances, and constituent services, alongside younger or left-leaning candidates capitalizing on turnout in safe Democratic districts. With additional contests remaining through September—including in Massachusetts and potential California runoffs—trader pricing in the 10-12 range aligns with expectations of several more defeats without a complete overhaul of the caucus. Historical patterns show most incumbents still prevail, but elevated challenge volume supports the current consensus range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$35,427Binuksan ang Market
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic House incumbents face an unusually high number of primary challenges in 2026, driven by generational turnover demands, progressive insurgencies, and redistricting effects.** At least seven have already lost renomination, including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to challengers backed by progressive figures, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two Texas members displaced by mid-decade map changes. These outcomes reflect voter frustration with long-serving members over issues like corporate PAC funding, foreign policy stances, and constituent services, alongside younger or left-leaning candidates capitalizing on turnout in safe Democratic districts. With additional contests remaining through September—including in Massachusetts and potential California runoffs—trader pricing in the 10-12 range aligns with expectations of several more defeats without a complete overhaul of the caucus. Historical patterns show most incumbents still prevail, but elevated challenge volume supports the current consensus range.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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