Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination amid the ongoing US-Israel war. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed leadership in early March without internal fractures, bolstered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hardliners who suppressed nationwide protests—sparked by economic collapse and killing over 7,000—through mass arrests, executions, and internet blackouts. US intelligence assessments confirm regime stability and IRGC entrenchment, with no verified military dissent or plots emerging in the past 30 days despite sporadic unrest and a fragile April 8 ceasefire. Absent escalation signals, structural barriers like IRGC loyalty sustain the high "No" pricing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$399,503 Vol.
$399,503 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$399,503 Vol.
$399,503 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination amid the ongoing US-Israel war. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed leadership in early March without internal fractures, bolstered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hardliners who suppressed nationwide protests—sparked by economic collapse and killing over 7,000—through mass arrests, executions, and internet blackouts. US intelligence assessments confirm regime stability and IRGC entrenchment, with no verified military dissent or plots emerging in the past 30 days despite sporadic unrest and a fragile April 8 ceasefire. Absent escalation signals, structural barriers like IRGC loyalty sustain the high "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$399,503Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination amid the ongoing US-Israel war. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed leadership in early March without internal fractures, bolstered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hardliners who suppressed nationwide protests—sparked by economic collapse and killing over 7,000—through mass arrests, executions, and internet blackouts. US intelligence assessments confirm regime stability and IRGC entrenchment, with no verified military dissent or plots emerging in the past 30 days despite sporadic unrest and a fragile April 8 ceasefire. Absent escalation signals, structural barriers like IRGC loyalty sustain the high "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$399,503Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, driven by the regime's consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination amid the ongoing US-Israel war. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed leadership in early March without internal fractures, bolstered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hardliners who suppressed nationwide protests—sparked by economic collapse and killing over 7,000—through mass arrests, executions, and internet blackouts. US intelligence assessments confirm regime stability and IRGC entrenchment, with no verified military dissent or plots emerging in the past 30 days despite sporadic unrest and a fragile April 8 ceasefire. Absent escalation signals, structural barriers like IRGC loyalty sustain the high "No" pricing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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