**Trader consensus on Polymarket places the probability of a widely reported coup attempt in Iran by December 31, 2026, at roughly 12 percent.** This low implied probability stems from the absence of any confirmed military or factional takeover since the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered regime-change rhetoric. Internal power struggles have intensified, with hardliners publicly accusing figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting a “soft coup” during truce negotiations and the transition period. These accusations highlight factional tensions between clerical loyalists, military elements, and reformist-leaning officials, yet no coordinated action has produced verifiable reports of an attempt. Ongoing diplomatic pressures around the truce and leadership succession processes remain the primary variables that could alter sentiment if they escalate into open confrontation or institutional breakdown before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$2,115,813 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 Vol.
December 31
$74,587 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on Polymarket places the probability of a widely reported coup attempt in Iran by December 31, 2026, at roughly 12 percent.** This low implied probability stems from the absence of any confirmed military or factional takeover since the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered regime-change rhetoric. Internal power struggles have intensified, with hardliners publicly accusing figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting a “soft coup” during truce negotiations and the transition period. These accusations highlight factional tensions between clerical loyalists, military elements, and reformist-leaning officials, yet no coordinated action has produced verifiable reports of an attempt. Ongoing diplomatic pressures around the truce and leadership succession processes remain the primary variables that could alter sentiment if they escalate into open confrontation or institutional breakdown before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,115,813Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on Polymarket places the probability of a widely reported coup attempt in Iran by December 31, 2026, at roughly 12 percent.** This low implied probability stems from the absence of any confirmed military or factional takeover since the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered regime-change rhetoric. Internal power struggles have intensified, with hardliners publicly accusing figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting a “soft coup” during truce negotiations and the transition period. These accusations highlight factional tensions between clerical loyalists, military elements, and reformist-leaning officials, yet no coordinated action has produced verifiable reports of an attempt. Ongoing diplomatic pressures around the truce and leadership succession processes remain the primary variables that could alter sentiment if they escalate into open confrontation or institutional breakdown before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,115,813Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on Polymarket places the probability of a widely reported coup attempt in Iran by December 31, 2026, at roughly 12 percent.** This low implied probability stems from the absence of any confirmed military or factional takeover since the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered regime-change rhetoric. Internal power struggles have intensified, with hardliners publicly accusing figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting a “soft coup” during truce negotiations and the transition period. These accusations highlight factional tensions between clerical loyalists, military elements, and reformist-leaning officials, yet no coordinated action has produced verifiable reports of an attempt. Ongoing diplomatic pressures around the truce and leadership succession processes remain the primary variables that could alter sentiment if they escalate into open confrontation or institutional breakdown before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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