Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a historic single-party supermajority of 316 seats in the February 2026 general election following the January dissolution of the House of Representatives. This outcome, combined with the subsequent fragmentation of the main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance in September, has left the ruling coalition with a commanding lower-house majority and reduced immediate incentives for another snap election before year-end. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 96.4% implied probability because Japan’s lower house follows a four-year term unless dissolved early, and recent political consolidation plus the absence of acute crises align with historical patterns of stability after major victories. A late 2026 dissolution would require unforeseen developments such as a sharp drop in approval ratings, major policy setbacks, or sudden coalition strains that have not materialized.