Clear skies and calm winds under a stable high-pressure system are driving radiative cooling overnight in Madrid, with official forecasts and numerical models converging on a minimum near 12°C. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact low, well below the 16.2°C climatological average yet consistent with observed conditions on September 11. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of significant cloud cover or advection that could limit cooling. A realistic challenge would require last-minute model revisions showing increased humidity, unexpected southeasterly flow, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary station.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
12°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$1,129 Vol.
$1,129 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$1,129 Vol.
$1,129 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
11°C or below
$350 Vol.
No
12°C
$310 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$31 Vol.
No
14°C
$118 Vol.
No
15°C
$250 Vol.
No
16°C
$0 Vol.
No
17°C
$0 Vol.
No
18°C
$0 Vol.
No
19°C
$15 Vol.
No
20°C
$40 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$15 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and calm winds under a stable high-pressure system are driving radiative cooling overnight in Madrid, with official forecasts and numerical models converging on a minimum near 12°C. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact low, well below the 16.2°C climatological average yet consistent with observed conditions on September 11. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of significant cloud cover or advection that could limit cooling. A realistic challenge would require last-minute model revisions showing increased humidity, unexpected southeasterly flow, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,129Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 11, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and calm winds under a stable high-pressure system are driving radiative cooling overnight in Madrid, with official forecasts and numerical models converging on a minimum near 12°C. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact low, well below the 16.2°C climatological average yet consistent with observed conditions on September 11. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of significant cloud cover or advection that could limit cooling. A realistic challenge would require last-minute model revisions showing increased humidity, unexpected southeasterly flow, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,129Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 11, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
Clear skies and calm winds under a stable high-pressure system are driving radiative cooling overnight in Madrid, with official forecasts and numerical models converging on a minimum near 12°C. This aligns with the market's overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact low, well below the 16.2°C climatological average yet consistent with observed conditions on September 11. Trader consensus reflects high confidence in the absence of significant cloud cover or advection that could limit cooling. A realistic challenge would require last-minute model revisions showing increased humidity, unexpected southeasterly flow, or localized measurement discrepancies at the primary station.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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