**Current forecasts from major models position Miami's overnight low on September 3 around 78–81°F, aligning with the market's leading 80–81°F bin at 40% implied probability.** WeatherBug explicitly projects an 81°F minimum under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, while other sources cluster between 78–82°F. These elevated lows reflect persistent tropical moisture, high dew points near 76–78°F, and cloud cover that limits radiative cooling overnight—typical for early September in South Florida. Historical September averages show daily lows near 77°F, with records rarely dipping below 68°F this early in the month. The 73°F-or-below outcome at 25% reflects residual uncertainty from possible model shifts or localized heavier rain, but recent guidance shows no strong cold advection or clear-sky setup that would drive such cooling. Conversely, the 92°F+ bin at 24.5% captures tail risk from forecast busts or measurement anomalies, though it remains inconsistent with ensemble consensus. Key near-term catalysts include updated NWS and global model runs over the next 24–48 hours, which will refine steering flow and convective timing. With resolution just two days away, traders are weighting the current stable warm, humid pattern most heavily, producing tight clustering around the upper-70s to low-80s range.