**Recent weather model consensus points to a mild overnight minimum in Munich on September 3, 2026, with forecasts clustering around 13–15 °C.** Official and ensemble guidance from sources such as GFS and ECMWF show westerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and light winds that limit radiative cooling under high pressure. This setup supports lows near the recent historical average of 12 °C but slightly above it, consistent with the market’s tight clustering between the 14 °C (43 %) and 13 °C (36 %) outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing and extent of any brief clear spells overnight, which can add or subtract 1–2 °C through enhanced long-wave radiation loss, and minor spread in model depictions of boundary-layer moisture and 10 m wind speeds. With no strong cold advection expected and daytime maxima forecast near 24–25 °C, the probability mass remains concentrated in the narrow 13–14 °C window, while tails below 11 °C or above 15 °C reflect only low-likelihood model outliers or measurement-site differences. Updated model runs through September 2 will further narrow the range ahead of market resolution.