**Ongoing summit reinflation at Kīlauea, tracked via tiltmeters at Uēkahuna and other stations, is the main driver of trader positioning on Episode 53 timing.** USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models, calibrated on historical inflation rates and the abrupt post-Episode 52 switch from deflation to inflation, currently place the most likely window between August 8 and 12. Steady positive tilt over the past day, after a brief deflationary interruption, supports continued magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu, with fountaining expected once pressure thresholds are reached. The narrow spread between Aug 11-12 and later dates reflects uncertainty in the precise inflation trajectory and minor model variations; faster-than-average tilt accumulation would favor an earlier start within the official range, while slower buildup or renewed pauses could push activity beyond August 12. No significant East Rift Zone activity or seismic changes have altered the outlook.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhen will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
Aug 11-12 54%
Aug 13 or later 47%
Aug 8 or earlier 34%
Aug 9-10 33%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
34%
Aug 9-10
33%
Aug 11-12
54%
Aug 13 or later
47%
Aug 11-12 54%
Aug 13 or later 47%
Aug 8 or earlier 34%
Aug 9-10 33%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
$0 Vol.
34%
Aug 9-10
$0 Vol.
33%
Aug 11-12
$20 Vol.
54%
Aug 13 or later
$0 Vol.
47%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.**Ongoing summit reinflation at Kīlauea, tracked via tiltmeters at Uēkahuna and other stations, is the main driver of trader positioning on Episode 53 timing.** USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models, calibrated on historical inflation rates and the abrupt post-Episode 52 switch from deflation to inflation, currently place the most likely window between August 8 and 12. Steady positive tilt over the past day, after a brief deflationary interruption, supports continued magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu, with fountaining expected once pressure thresholds are reached. The narrow spread between Aug 11-12 and later dates reflects uncertainty in the precise inflation trajectory and minor model variations; faster-than-average tilt accumulation would favor an earlier start within the official range, while slower buildup or renewed pauses could push activity beyond August 12. No significant East Rift Zone activity or seismic changes have altered the outlook.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$20Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.**Ongoing summit reinflation at Kīlauea, tracked via tiltmeters at Uēkahuna and other stations, is the main driver of trader positioning on Episode 53 timing.** USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models, calibrated on historical inflation rates and the abrupt post-Episode 52 switch from deflation to inflation, currently place the most likely window between August 8 and 12. Steady positive tilt over the past day, after a brief deflationary interruption, supports continued magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu, with fountaining expected once pressure thresholds are reached. The narrow spread between Aug 11-12 and later dates reflects uncertainty in the precise inflation trajectory and minor model variations; faster-than-average tilt accumulation would favor an earlier start within the official range, while slower buildup or renewed pauses could push activity beyond August 12. No significant East Rift Zone activity or seismic changes have altered the outlook.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volume
$20Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing summit reinflation at Kīlauea, tracked via tiltmeters at Uēkahuna and other stations, is the main driver of trader positioning on Episode 53 timing.** USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models, calibrated on historical inflation rates and the abrupt post-Episode 52 switch from deflation to inflation, currently place the most likely window between August 8 and 12. Steady positive tilt over the past day, after a brief deflationary interruption, supports continued magma accumulation beneath Halemaʻumaʻu, with fountaining expected once pressure thresholds are reached. The narrow spread between Aug 11-12 and later dates reflects uncertainty in the precise inflation trajectory and minor model variations; faster-than-average tilt accumulation would favor an earlier start within the official range, while slower buildup or renewed pauses could push activity beyond August 12. No significant East Rift Zone activity or seismic changes have altered the outlook.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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