Trader consensus prices an 82.5% implied probability on no charges against former Rep. Eric Swalwell by May 31, driven by recent sexual misconduct allegations from multiple women that prompted probes by the Los Angeles and Manhattan district attorneys, plus a fresh DOJ investigation into assault claims verified by forensic video analysis. Despite accusers speaking publicly and the House Ethics Committee launching a now-terminated inquiry upon his April 13 resignation from Congress—ending his California gubernatorial bid—no formal indictment has emerged in the past week. These early-stage investigations, spanning local and federal levels amid Swalwell's denials, underscore procedural timelines and evidentiary hurdles that make swift charges unlikely before the deadline.