Despite heightened rhetoric and a fast-tracked parliamentary bill in late March 2026 urging withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants, Tehran has not advanced formal exit procedures, maintaining IAEA safeguards. This reflects trader consensus on Iran's longstanding pattern of threats since 2004 without follow-through, weighed against severe risks of intensified UN sanctions, even from allies like Russia and China, and economic isolation amid war damage exceeding hundreds of billions. Ongoing ceasefire diplomacy in Islamabad, with Trump signaling de-escalation and Iran prioritizing sanctions relief over nuclear escalation, reinforces the 81.5% implied probability of no withdrawal before 2027, barring failed talks or renewed strikes.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendiİran 2027 'den önce NPT'den çekilecek mi?
İran 2027 'den önce NPT'den çekilecek mi?
Evet
$109,021 Hac.
$109,021 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$109,021 Hac.
$109,021 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite heightened rhetoric and a fast-tracked parliamentary bill in late March 2026 urging withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants, Tehran has not advanced formal exit procedures, maintaining IAEA safeguards. This reflects trader consensus on Iran's longstanding pattern of threats since 2004 without follow-through, weighed against severe risks of intensified UN sanctions, even from allies like Russia and China, and economic isolation amid war damage exceeding hundreds of billions. Ongoing ceasefire diplomacy in Islamabad, with Trump signaling de-escalation and Iran prioritizing sanctions relief over nuclear escalation, reinforces the 81.5% implied probability of no withdrawal before 2027, barring failed talks or renewed strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Hacim
$109,021Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite heightened rhetoric and a fast-tracked parliamentary bill in late March 2026 urging withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants, Tehran has not advanced formal exit procedures, maintaining IAEA safeguards. This reflects trader consensus on Iran's longstanding pattern of threats since 2004 without follow-through, weighed against severe risks of intensified UN sanctions, even from allies like Russia and China, and economic isolation amid war damage exceeding hundreds of billions. Ongoing ceasefire diplomacy in Islamabad, with Trump signaling de-escalation and Iran prioritizing sanctions relief over nuclear escalation, reinforces the 81.5% implied probability of no withdrawal before 2027, barring failed talks or renewed strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$109,021Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite heightened rhetoric and a fast-tracked parliamentary bill in late March 2026 urging withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants, Tehran has not advanced formal exit procedures, maintaining IAEA safeguards. This reflects trader consensus on Iran's longstanding pattern of threats since 2004 without follow-through, weighed against severe risks of intensified UN sanctions, even from allies like Russia and China, and economic isolation amid war damage exceeding hundreds of billions. Ongoing ceasefire diplomacy in Islamabad, with Trump signaling de-escalation and Iran prioritizing sanctions relief over nuclear escalation, reinforces the 81.5% implied probability of no withdrawal before 2027, barring failed talks or renewed strikes.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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