Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, intensified by last weekend's marathon Islamabad talks that ended without agreement but left the door open for a swift resumption, underpin the 69.5% implied probability of a nuclear deal before 2027. President Trump signaled potential second-round diplomacy within days, amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports pressuring Tehran on uranium enrichment suspension—Washington seeks a 20-year halt, while Iran insists on shorter terms and sanctions relief. Vice President Vance cited "significant progress" on monitoring mechanisms, with Pakistan mediating amid a fragile ceasefire following last year's military actions. Traders weigh the diplomatic momentum and extended timeline against persistent sticking points like the Strait of Hormuz access and Iran's nuclear stockpiles.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$630,145 Hac.
$630,145 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$630,145 Hac.
$630,145 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, intensified by last weekend's marathon Islamabad talks that ended without agreement but left the door open for a swift resumption, underpin the 69.5% implied probability of a nuclear deal before 2027. President Trump signaled potential second-round diplomacy within days, amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports pressuring Tehran on uranium enrichment suspension—Washington seeks a 20-year halt, while Iran insists on shorter terms and sanctions relief. Vice President Vance cited "significant progress" on monitoring mechanisms, with Pakistan mediating amid a fragile ceasefire following last year's military actions. Traders weigh the diplomatic momentum and extended timeline against persistent sticking points like the Strait of Hormuz access and Iran's nuclear stockpiles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Hacim
$630,145Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, intensified by last weekend's marathon Islamabad talks that ended without agreement but left the door open for a swift resumption, underpin the 69.5% implied probability of a nuclear deal before 2027. President Trump signaled potential second-round diplomacy within days, amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports pressuring Tehran on uranium enrichment suspension—Washington seeks a 20-year halt, while Iran insists on shorter terms and sanctions relief. Vice President Vance cited "significant progress" on monitoring mechanisms, with Pakistan mediating amid a fragile ceasefire following last year's military actions. Traders weigh the diplomatic momentum and extended timeline against persistent sticking points like the Strait of Hormuz access and Iran's nuclear stockpiles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Hacim
$630,145Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, intensified by last weekend's marathon Islamabad talks that ended without agreement but left the door open for a swift resumption, underpin the 69.5% implied probability of a nuclear deal before 2027. President Trump signaled potential second-round diplomacy within days, amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports pressuring Tehran on uranium enrichment suspension—Washington seeks a 20-year halt, while Iran insists on shorter terms and sanctions relief. Vice President Vance cited "significant progress" on monitoring mechanisms, with Pakistan mediating amid a fragile ceasefire following last year's military actions. Traders weigh the diplomatic momentum and extended timeline against persistent sticking points like the Strait of Hormuz access and Iran's nuclear stockpiles.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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