Trader consensus prices a near-certain continuation of the Iranian regime past April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) consolidation of power following mid-March Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and de facto ruler Ali Larijani. A provisional leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei has stabilized amid a ceasefire holding since early April, suppressing winter 2025–2026 protests despite economic freefall from inflation exceeding 40%, factory shutdowns, and sanctions. No mass defections, coordinated uprisings, or command fractures have emerged in the past two weeks, echoing historical crackdowns on dissent. Realistic shifts could arise from ceasefire breakdown, escalated airstrikes, or sudden IRGC disloyalty, though structural resilience favors endurance.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendiİran rejimi 30 Nisan'a kadar düşecek mi?
İran rejimi 30 Nisan'a kadar düşecek mi?
Evet
$31,950,954 Hac.
$31,950,954 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Evet
$31,950,954 Hac.
$31,950,954 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a near-certain continuation of the Iranian regime past April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) consolidation of power following mid-March Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and de facto ruler Ali Larijani. A provisional leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei has stabilized amid a ceasefire holding since early April, suppressing winter 2025–2026 protests despite economic freefall from inflation exceeding 40%, factory shutdowns, and sanctions. No mass defections, coordinated uprisings, or command fractures have emerged in the past two weeks, echoing historical crackdowns on dissent. Realistic shifts could arise from ceasefire breakdown, escalated airstrikes, or sudden IRGC disloyalty, though structural resilience favors endurance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Hacim
$31,950,954Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a near-certain continuation of the Iranian regime past April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) consolidation of power following mid-March Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and de facto ruler Ali Larijani. A provisional leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei has stabilized amid a ceasefire holding since early April, suppressing winter 2025–2026 protests despite economic freefall from inflation exceeding 40%, factory shutdowns, and sanctions. No mass defections, coordinated uprisings, or command fractures have emerged in the past two weeks, echoing historical crackdowns on dissent. Realistic shifts could arise from ceasefire breakdown, escalated airstrikes, or sudden IRGC disloyalty, though structural resilience favors endurance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$31,950,954Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a near-certain continuation of the Iranian regime past April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) consolidation of power following mid-March Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and de facto ruler Ali Larijani. A provisional leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei has stabilized amid a ceasefire holding since early April, suppressing winter 2025–2026 protests despite economic freefall from inflation exceeding 40%, factory shutdowns, and sanctions. No mass defections, coordinated uprisings, or command fractures have emerged in the past two weeks, echoing historical crackdowns on dissent. Realistic shifts could arise from ceasefire breakdown, escalated airstrikes, or sudden IRGC disloyalty, though structural resilience favors endurance.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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