Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in early March 2026 following Ali Khamenei's assassination amid US-Israeli strikes and nationwide protests. Despite Reza Pahlavi's recent announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership—including CPAC speeches and calls for military defection—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated power, enforcing harsh crackdowns like recent protester executions and internet blackouts. Ongoing US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Treasury sanctions add economic pressure but have not triggered collapse or Pahlavi's return from exile. Structural barriers, including loyalist security forces and no mass uprisings in the past week, sustain 90% odds against him leading Iran by year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiRıza Pehlevi 2026 'da İran'a liderlik edecek mi?
Rıza Pehlevi 2026 'da İran'a liderlik edecek mi?
Evet
$1,059,054 Hac.
$1,059,054 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$1,059,054 Hac.
$1,059,054 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in early March 2026 following Ali Khamenei's assassination amid US-Israeli strikes and nationwide protests. Despite Reza Pahlavi's recent announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership—including CPAC speeches and calls for military defection—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated power, enforcing harsh crackdowns like recent protester executions and internet blackouts. Ongoing US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Treasury sanctions add economic pressure but have not triggered collapse or Pahlavi's return from exile. Structural barriers, including loyalist security forces and no mass uprisings in the past week, sustain 90% odds against him leading Iran by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Hacim
$1,059,054Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in early March 2026 following Ali Khamenei's assassination amid US-Israeli strikes and nationwide protests. Despite Reza Pahlavi's recent announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership—including CPAC speeches and calls for military defection—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated power, enforcing harsh crackdowns like recent protester executions and internet blackouts. Ongoing US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Treasury sanctions add economic pressure but have not triggered collapse or Pahlavi's return from exile. Structural barriers, including loyalist security forces and no mass uprisings in the past week, sustain 90% odds against him leading Iran by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$1,059,056Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in early March 2026 following Ali Khamenei's assassination amid US-Israeli strikes and nationwide protests. Despite Reza Pahlavi's recent announcements positioning himself for transitional leadership—including CPAC speeches and calls for military defection—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated power, enforcing harsh crackdowns like recent protester executions and internet blackouts. Ongoing US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Treasury sanctions add economic pressure but have not triggered collapse or Pahlavi's return from exile. Structural barriers, including loyalist security forces and no mass uprisings in the past week, sustain 90% odds against him leading Iran by year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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