Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no STF justice facing successful impeachment removal before 2027 due to the high procedural and political thresholds required in the Brazilian Senate. Impeachment demands a supermajority vote and faces institutional resistance, as evidenced by the STF’s own efforts to refine related rules and the rarity of such actions historically. Recent congressional inquiries, including the April 2026 report on the Banco Master case recommending proceedings against Justices Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes, have not advanced to formal votes or removal. The compressed timeline through late 2026 further reduces prospects, absent a sudden escalation in legislative support or a major verified scandal that shifts Senate dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$82,649 Обс.
$82,649 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$82,649 Обс.
$82,649 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no STF justice facing successful impeachment removal before 2027 due to the high procedural and political thresholds required in the Brazilian Senate. Impeachment demands a supermajority vote and faces institutional resistance, as evidenced by the STF’s own efforts to refine related rules and the rarity of such actions historically. Recent congressional inquiries, including the April 2026 report on the Banco Master case recommending proceedings against Justices Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes, have not advanced to formal votes or removal. The compressed timeline through late 2026 further reduces prospects, absent a sudden escalation in legislative support or a major verified scandal that shifts Senate dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$82,649Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no STF justice facing successful impeachment removal before 2027 due to the high procedural and political thresholds required in the Brazilian Senate. Impeachment demands a supermajority vote and faces institutional resistance, as evidenced by the STF’s own efforts to refine related rules and the rarity of such actions historically. Recent congressional inquiries, including the April 2026 report on the Banco Master case recommending proceedings against Justices Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes, have not advanced to formal votes or removal. The compressed timeline through late 2026 further reduces prospects, absent a sudden escalation in legislative support or a major verified scandal that shifts Senate dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$82,649Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no STF justice facing successful impeachment removal before 2027 due to the high procedural and political thresholds required in the Brazilian Senate. Impeachment demands a supermajority vote and faces institutional resistance, as evidenced by the STF’s own efforts to refine related rules and the rarity of such actions historically. Recent congressional inquiries, including the April 2026 report on the Banco Master case recommending proceedings against Justices Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Alexandre de Moraes, have not advanced to formal votes or removal. The compressed timeline through late 2026 further reduces prospects, absent a sudden escalation in legislative support or a major verified scandal that shifts Senate dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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