The constitutional threshold of 54 Senate votes for convicting an STF justice on charges of responsibility, paired with the current chamber's composition and projections showing at most around 40 supportive seats even after the October 2026 elections, forms the core barrier sustaining trader consensus against removal before 2027. Over 100 pending petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes, have remained stalled under Senate leadership, while a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes altered procedural rules and further raised hurdles. Lula-aligned blocs continue to block advancement, consistent with the absence of any successful STF impeachment in Brazilian history. Plausible shifts could still arise from unforeseen Senate realignments, a major verified scandal altering vote counts, or accelerated procedural changes within the remaining months.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4% шанс
$83,913 Обс.
$83,913 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
4% шанс
$83,913 Обс.
$83,913 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The constitutional threshold of 54 Senate votes for convicting an STF justice on charges of responsibility, paired with the current chamber's composition and projections showing at most around 40 supportive seats even after the October 2026 elections, forms the core barrier sustaining trader consensus against removal before 2027. Over 100 pending petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes, have remained stalled under Senate leadership, while a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes altered procedural rules and further raised hurdles. Lula-aligned blocs continue to block advancement, consistent with the absence of any successful STF impeachment in Brazilian history. Plausible shifts could still arise from unforeseen Senate realignments, a major verified scandal altering vote counts, or accelerated procedural changes within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$83,913Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The constitutional threshold of 54 Senate votes for convicting an STF justice on charges of responsibility, paired with the current chamber's composition and projections showing at most around 40 supportive seats even after the October 2026 elections, forms the core barrier sustaining trader consensus against removal before 2027. Over 100 pending petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes, have remained stalled under Senate leadership, while a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes altered procedural rules and further raised hurdles. Lula-aligned blocs continue to block advancement, consistent with the absence of any successful STF impeachment in Brazilian history. Plausible shifts could still arise from unforeseen Senate realignments, a major verified scandal altering vote counts, or accelerated procedural changes within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$83,913Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The constitutional threshold of 54 Senate votes for convicting an STF justice on charges of responsibility, paired with the current chamber's composition and projections showing at most around 40 supportive seats even after the October 2026 elections, forms the core barrier sustaining trader consensus against removal before 2027. Over 100 pending petitions, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes, have remained stalled under Senate leadership, while a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes altered procedural rules and further raised hurdles. Lula-aligned blocs continue to block advancement, consistent with the absence of any successful STF impeachment in Brazilian history. Plausible shifts could still arise from unforeseen Senate realignments, a major verified scandal altering vote counts, or accelerated procedural changes within the remaining months.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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