Brazil's Senate has shelved over 100 pending impeachment petitions against STF justices, and internal projections show even an expanded opposition bloc after October 2026 elections falling short of the 54 votes now required following a December 2025 procedural ruling. No STF minister has ever been removed by impeachment, and the current Senate composition, combined with institutional alliances, creates a high threshold that has withstood repeated political pressure. Traders assign 96.6% probability to "No" by end-2026 because these structural obstacles persist through the remaining months. Late developments such as an unforeseen congressional realignment or a major verified scandal involving a specific justice remain the primary variables that could alter timing, though both face steep procedural and vote-count hurdles before the 2027 transition.