**Traders assign a 77% implied probability to "No" on Nicolás Maduro being convicted on all four counts in the U.S. Southern District of New York indictment by the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline.** The case stems from Maduro’s January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation and subsequent extradition to face charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses dating back over two decades. Pretrial proceedings feature substantial procedural complexity. Defense counsel has signaled motions challenging jurisdiction, head-of-state immunity, and the legality of the apprehension, with filings due in early September 2026 and oral arguments set for November. The June 2027 trial date was jointly proposed by prosecutors and defense, leaving an extended window for classified evidence disclosures, additional motions, and potential negotiations. These dynamics, combined with the inherent evidentiary and legal hurdles in complex narcotics prosecutions involving foreign officials, underpin market pricing. Historical patterns in similar high-profile cases show frequent partial outcomes, dismissals on subsets of counts, or resolutions short of full convictions. The extended timeline further raises the chance of developments that prevent unanimous guilty verdicts across every charge before the cutoff.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено23% шанс
$132,738 Обс.
$132,738 Обс.
Dec 30, 2027
23% шанс
$132,738 Обс.
$132,738 Обс.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 77% implied probability to "No" on Nicolás Maduro being convicted on all four counts in the U.S. Southern District of New York indictment by the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline.** The case stems from Maduro’s January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation and subsequent extradition to face charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses dating back over two decades.
Pretrial proceedings feature substantial procedural complexity. Defense counsel has signaled motions challenging jurisdiction, head-of-state immunity, and the legality of the apprehension, with filings due in early September 2026 and oral arguments set for November. The June 2027 trial date was jointly proposed by prosecutors and defense, leaving an extended window for classified evidence disclosures, additional motions, and potential negotiations.
These dynamics, combined with the inherent evidentiary and legal hurdles in complex narcotics prosecutions involving foreign officials, underpin market pricing. Historical patterns in similar high-profile cases show frequent partial outcomes, dismissals on subsets of counts, or resolutions short of full convictions. The extended timeline further raises the chance of developments that prevent unanimous guilty verdicts across every charge before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$132,738Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 77% implied probability to "No" on Nicolás Maduro being convicted on all four counts in the U.S. Southern District of New York indictment by the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline.** The case stems from Maduro’s January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation and subsequent extradition to face charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses dating back over two decades.
Pretrial proceedings feature substantial procedural complexity. Defense counsel has signaled motions challenging jurisdiction, head-of-state immunity, and the legality of the apprehension, with filings due in early September 2026 and oral arguments set for November. The June 2027 trial date was jointly proposed by prosecutors and defense, leaving an extended window for classified evidence disclosures, additional motions, and potential negotiations.
These dynamics, combined with the inherent evidentiary and legal hurdles in complex narcotics prosecutions involving foreign officials, underpin market pricing. Historical patterns in similar high-profile cases show frequent partial outcomes, dismissals on subsets of counts, or resolutions short of full convictions. The extended timeline further raises the chance of developments that prevent unanimous guilty verdicts across every charge before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$132,738Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 77% implied probability to "No" on Nicolás Maduro being convicted on all four counts in the U.S. Southern District of New York indictment by the December 31, 2027 resolution deadline.** The case stems from Maduro’s January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation and subsequent extradition to face charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and related weapons offenses dating back over two decades. Pretrial proceedings feature substantial procedural complexity. Defense counsel has signaled motions challenging jurisdiction, head-of-state immunity, and the legality of the apprehension, with filings due in early September 2026 and oral arguments set for November. The June 2027 trial date was jointly proposed by prosecutors and defense, leaving an extended window for classified evidence disclosures, additional motions, and potential negotiations. These dynamics, combined with the inherent evidentiary and legal hurdles in complex narcotics prosecutions involving foreign officials, underpin market pricing. Historical patterns in similar high-profile cases show frequent partial outcomes, dismissals on subsets of counts, or resolutions short of full convictions. The extended timeline further raises the chance of developments that prevent unanimous guilty verdicts across every charge before the cutoff.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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