Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 65% of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter at 18%, setting up a November general election in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. The area's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+20 to D+26 and consistent past margins exceeding 40 points, underpins trader consensus on the outcome. Mullin's established incumbency and the limited resources or profile of the Republican nominee further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026, contest. A late scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this San Mateo and San Francisco County district suggest limited scope for such shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$122,350 Обс.
$122,350 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
<1%
$122,350 Обс.
$122,350 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$94,045 Обс.
96%
Republican Party
$28,305 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 65% of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter at 18%, setting up a November general election in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. The area's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+20 to D+26 and consistent past margins exceeding 40 points, underpins trader consensus on the outcome. Mullin's established incumbency and the limited resources or profile of the Republican nominee further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026, contest. A late scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this San Mateo and San Francisco County district suggest limited scope for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$122,350Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 65% of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter at 18%, setting up a November general election in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. The area's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+20 to D+26 and consistent past margins exceeding 40 points, underpins trader consensus on the outcome. Mullin's established incumbency and the limited resources or profile of the Republican nominee further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026, contest. A late scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this San Mateo and San Francisco County district suggest limited scope for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$122,350Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 65% of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter at 18%, setting up a November general election in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. The area's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+20 to D+26 and consistent past margins exceeding 40 points, underpins trader consensus on the outcome. Mullin's established incumbency and the limited resources or profile of the Republican nominee further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November 3, 2026, contest. A late scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this San Mateo and San Francisco County district suggest limited scope for such shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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