California's 14th Congressional District, with its D+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of Democratic House margins exceeding 65%—including Eric Swalwell's 68% win in 2024—drives trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic Party victory in the November 3 general election. Swalwell's resignation on April 14 amid sexual misconduct allegations, following his gubernatorial bid suspension, confirmed the open seat and prompted Gov. Gavin Newsom to call a special election, but the district's East Bay Democratic stronghold remains intact. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 2, featuring well-funded contenders like Rakhi Israni ($2M cash on hand), overshadows the lone Republican, Wendy Huang. Realistic challenges include a GOP surprise in the top-two primary or a national Republican wave, though structural barriers favor Democrats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$24,894 Обс.
$24,894 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$24,894 Обс.
$24,894 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,851 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$17,044 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, with its D+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of Democratic House margins exceeding 65%—including Eric Swalwell's 68% win in 2024—drives trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic Party victory in the November 3 general election. Swalwell's resignation on April 14 amid sexual misconduct allegations, following his gubernatorial bid suspension, confirmed the open seat and prompted Gov. Gavin Newsom to call a special election, but the district's East Bay Democratic stronghold remains intact. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 2, featuring well-funded contenders like Rakhi Israni ($2M cash on hand), overshadows the lone Republican, Wendy Huang. Realistic challenges include a GOP surprise in the top-two primary or a national Republican wave, though structural barriers favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$24,894Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, with its D+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of Democratic House margins exceeding 65%—including Eric Swalwell's 68% win in 2024—drives trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic Party victory in the November 3 general election. Swalwell's resignation on April 14 amid sexual misconduct allegations, following his gubernatorial bid suspension, confirmed the open seat and prompted Gov. Gavin Newsom to call a special election, but the district's East Bay Democratic stronghold remains intact. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 2, featuring well-funded contenders like Rakhi Israni ($2M cash on hand), overshadows the lone Republican, Wendy Huang. Realistic challenges include a GOP surprise in the top-two primary or a national Republican wave, though structural barriers favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$24,894Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th Congressional District, with its D+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index and history of Democratic House margins exceeding 65%—including Eric Swalwell's 68% win in 2024—drives trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic Party victory in the November 3 general election. Swalwell's resignation on April 14 amid sexual misconduct allegations, following his gubernatorial bid suspension, confirmed the open seat and prompted Gov. Gavin Newsom to call a special election, but the district's East Bay Democratic stronghold remains intact. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 2, featuring well-funded contenders like Rakhi Israni ($2M cash on hand), overshadows the lone Republican, Wendy Huang. Realistic challenges include a GOP surprise in the top-two primary or a national Republican wave, though structural barriers favor Democrats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання