The heavily Democratic composition of Maryland's 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George's County suburbs with a D+40 partisan lean, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.4 percent. Incumbent Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022 and reelected with 88.4 percent in 2024 against minimal opposition, faces a June 23, 2026 Democratic primary against several lesser-known challengers while Republican George McDermott advances unopposed in his party's primary. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. A major scandal, serious health issue for the incumbent, or emergence of a high-profile Republican contender before the November 3 general election could shift probabilities, though no such developments have occurred.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$27,153 Обс.
$27,153 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$27,153 Обс.
$27,153 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,107 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$19,046 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of Maryland's 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George's County suburbs with a D+40 partisan lean, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.4 percent. Incumbent Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022 and reelected with 88.4 percent in 2024 against minimal opposition, faces a June 23, 2026 Democratic primary against several lesser-known challengers while Republican George McDermott advances unopposed in his party's primary. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. A major scandal, serious health issue for the incumbent, or emergence of a high-profile Republican contender before the November 3 general election could shift probabilities, though no such developments have occurred.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$27,153Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of Maryland's 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George's County suburbs with a D+40 partisan lean, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.4 percent. Incumbent Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022 and reelected with 88.4 percent in 2024 against minimal opposition, faces a June 23, 2026 Democratic primary against several lesser-known challengers while Republican George McDermott advances unopposed in his party's primary. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. A major scandal, serious health issue for the incumbent, or emergence of a high-profile Republican contender before the November 3 general election could shift probabilities, though no such developments have occurred.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$27,153Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of Maryland's 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George's County suburbs with a D+40 partisan lean, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 92.4 percent. Incumbent Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022 and reelected with 88.4 percent in 2024 against minimal opposition, faces a June 23, 2026 Democratic primary against several lesser-known challengers while Republican George McDermott advances unopposed in his party's primary. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. A major scandal, serious health issue for the incumbent, or emergence of a high-profile Republican contender before the November 3 general election could shift probabilities, though no such developments have occurred.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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