Maryland’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George’s County and surrounding Washington suburbs, carries one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+39. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024 against the same Republican opponent now seeking the 2026 nomination, and no credible challenger has emerged on the Republican side ahead of the June 23 primaries. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93 percent implied probability because structural factors—demographics, past margins, and limited opposition—have produced consistent double-digit victories for more than a decade. A shift would require either an unexpected Democratic primary result that weakens the general-election candidate or an unprecedented national environment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan advantage.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$27,153 Обс.
$27,153 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$27,153 Обс.
$27,153 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,107 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$19,046 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George’s County and surrounding Washington suburbs, carries one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+39. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024 against the same Republican opponent now seeking the 2026 nomination, and no credible challenger has emerged on the Republican side ahead of the June 23 primaries. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93 percent implied probability because structural factors—demographics, past margins, and limited opposition—have produced consistent double-digit victories for more than a decade. A shift would require either an unexpected Democratic primary result that weakens the general-election candidate or an unprecedented national environment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$27,153Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George’s County and surrounding Washington suburbs, carries one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+39. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024 against the same Republican opponent now seeking the 2026 nomination, and no credible challenger has emerged on the Republican side ahead of the June 23 primaries. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93 percent implied probability because structural factors—demographics, past margins, and limited opposition—have produced consistent double-digit victories for more than a decade. A shift would require either an unexpected Democratic primary result that weakens the general-election candidate or an unprecedented national environment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$27,153Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George’s County and surrounding Washington suburbs, carries one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+39. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured 88 percent of the vote in 2024 against the same Republican opponent now seeking the 2026 nomination, and no credible challenger has emerged on the Republican side ahead of the June 23 primaries. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93 percent implied probability because structural factors—demographics, past margins, and limited opposition—have produced consistent double-digit victories for more than a decade. A shift would require either an unexpected Democratic primary result that weakens the general-election candidate or an unprecedented national environment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan advantage.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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