Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver's commanding position in New Jersey's 10th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+27 partisan lean, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. McIver, who won 74% in 2024 despite a high-profile indictment by the Trump administration over an immigration enforcement clash that bolstered her progressive support, faces only token primary opposition from newcomer Lawrence Poster ahead of the June 2 contest, while perennial Republican Carmen Bucco—who lost decisively to her last cycle—remains the GOP nominee. Strong fundraising ($656,000 cash on hand) and endorsements from Governor Mikie Sherrill and local mayors reinforce her hold in this urban Essex-Hudson-Union stronghold. Upsets could stem from primary surprises, trial outcomes, or a massive national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNJ-10 House Election Winner
NJ-10 House Election Winner
$14,838 Обс.
$14,838 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$14,838 Обс.
$14,838 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,360 Обс.
93%
Republican Party
$7,478 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver's commanding position in New Jersey's 10th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+27 partisan lean, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. McIver, who won 74% in 2024 despite a high-profile indictment by the Trump administration over an immigration enforcement clash that bolstered her progressive support, faces only token primary opposition from newcomer Lawrence Poster ahead of the June 2 contest, while perennial Republican Carmen Bucco—who lost decisively to her last cycle—remains the GOP nominee. Strong fundraising ($656,000 cash on hand) and endorsements from Governor Mikie Sherrill and local mayors reinforce her hold in this urban Essex-Hudson-Union stronghold. Upsets could stem from primary surprises, trial outcomes, or a massive national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$14,838Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver's commanding position in New Jersey's 10th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+27 partisan lean, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. McIver, who won 74% in 2024 despite a high-profile indictment by the Trump administration over an immigration enforcement clash that bolstered her progressive support, faces only token primary opposition from newcomer Lawrence Poster ahead of the June 2 contest, while perennial Republican Carmen Bucco—who lost decisively to her last cycle—remains the GOP nominee. Strong fundraising ($656,000 cash on hand) and endorsements from Governor Mikie Sherrill and local mayors reinforce her hold in this urban Essex-Hudson-Union stronghold. Upsets could stem from primary surprises, trial outcomes, or a massive national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$14,838Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver's commanding position in New Jersey's 10th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+27 partisan lean, drives trader consensus toward a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party in the November 3 general election. McIver, who won 74% in 2024 despite a high-profile indictment by the Trump administration over an immigration enforcement clash that bolstered her progressive support, faces only token primary opposition from newcomer Lawrence Poster ahead of the June 2 contest, while perennial Republican Carmen Bucco—who lost decisively to her last cycle—remains the GOP nominee. Strong fundraising ($656,000 cash on hand) and endorsements from Governor Mikie Sherrill and local mayors reinforce her hold in this urban Essex-Hudson-Union stronghold. Upsets could stem from primary surprises, trial outcomes, or a massive national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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